There are 64 teams in this tournament. After 63 games are played, there will be one. The Cincinnati Bearcats aspire to be that team, and this has become much closer to a plan than a dream.
UC in NCAA
Game: 3:10 p.m ET, today.
Opponent: Northern Ariz.
Site: Boise, Idaho
Odds: UC by 15
TV: CBS
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''I've always said that when the tournament starts, if we play ball the way we can, we can beat anybody,'' said UC senior guard D'Juan Baker.
This is the thing about the NCAA Tournament: The winner must beat anybody, but not necessarily everybody. There are so many variables that go into the construction of a championship run that many of those not rated among the elite have reasons to believe that they can win it, and those that are among the highest seeds have those reasons along with talent and confidence.
UC has not won a national championship since 1962, but the NCAA selection committee has decreed this team - with a No. 9 poll ranking, 26-5 record and No. 2 seed in the West Regional - has as good a chance as any group of Bearcats in the past two decades.
The Bearcats are concentrating on winning today's first-round game at 3 p.m. against Big Sky champion Northern Arizona (21-7), but this game is not an isolated event. They are playing to win this one so they can win the tournament.
Given their status as one of the committee's top eight teams, it seems reasonable to ask whether that is likely, or possible. Does UC have the ingredients of an NCAA champion?
''Things happen - a lot of things happen,'' said Bearcats coach Bob Huggins. ''You have to avoid injuries, you have to avoid illness, and you have to shoot the ball well.
''I think it's a matter of, 'Can we make shots?' If we consistently make shots, anything can happen.''
It is not easy to find one common thread running through the line of recent NCAA champions, but there are several themes that recur in the majority. The Bearcats have some of those covered. In some, they are lacking.
Talent.Obviously a team needs talent to win. In the past decade, every NCAA champion had at least one top 10 NBA draft pick, with the exception of 1994 Arkansas. Its star, Corliss Williamson, was taken 13th by the Sacramento Kings. Arizona sophomore point guard Mike Bibby has not been drafted that high yet, but will be soon.
UC has two players who almost certainly will play in the NBA, center Kenyon Martin and forward Ruben Patterson, and others with a chance. Martin still has time to develop into a lottery pick, but if Patterson is to approach that level, he must start here.
Motivation. The last three national champions, and five of the past eight, left the previous year's tournament either humiliated by their nature of defeats or tantalized by what victory might have meant. Arizona lost the 1996 West semifinals on a tie-breaking three-pointer by Kansas guard Jerod Haase. Kentucky was beaten by 13 in the 1995 Southeast final when its offense was deconstructed by North Carolina.
UC's got both of those covered. The Bearcats were embarrassed to lose in the second round to Iowa State last season, after beginning the season with the No. 1 ranking, but the margin of their loss was a single point. So close.
''It really hurt us,'' Baker said, ''and that's why we came in with the idea of doing what it takes, listening to Coach.''
Depth. The typical NCAA champion employs an eight-man rotation. Arkansas used 10 players in 1994; UCLA had seven in 1995. The Bearcats rotate eight or nine players in most games.
Defense. Teams that rely on fullcourt pressure rarely win the title, and that includes the 1996 Kentucky Wildcats. That team did not need to press to be extraordinary defensively, according to no less an authority than former coach Rick Pitino.
This is a good sign for UC. The Bearcats have chosen not to press and have become adept enough at halfcourt defense to hold seven of the past nine opponents under 40 percent shooting and seven opponents to fewer than 20 points in the first half.
''We're not the greatest scoring team Cincinnati's ever had,'' said forward Bobby Brannen, ''but we can defend, and that's something that can be there every day.''
Direction. ''Most of the teams that win have leadership in the backcourt,'' said Temple coach John Chaney.
It is not essential to have a great point guard to win the title. Bobby Hurley, who led Duke to titles in 1991 and 1992 and Bibby represent exceptions to the list of championship playmakers, most of whom are more to the capable side: Kentucky's Anthony Epps, Arkansas' Corey Beck, North Carolina's Derrick Phelps.
Playing as he has in his past six games, with 60 points, 32 assists and 11 turnovers to go with his stern defense, Horton fits into that category. He previously averaged 3.7 turnovers, so is capable of playing less productively.
''I think we've got a pretty good shot if we come to play every day, prepare for all our opponents,'' Brannen said. ''I think if we come out and play defense with the potential we have, we can win a lot of games.''
Notebook: Bearcats do their homework
Tim Sullivan column
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