By Bill Koch
The Cincinnati Enquirer

The University of Cincinnati's three-game losing streak might have Bearcats fans feeling as if the sky is falling, with the dreaded National Invitation Tournament looming on the horizon. But the situation isn't quite that desperate.

Joe Lunardi, who compiles the Bracketology feature previewing NCAA Tournament pairings for ESPN.com, said Friday that despite their recent woes, the Bearcats (13-6) are still on track to make their 12th straight NCAA Tournament appearance.

"I still think with Cincinnati, we're talking about seeding," Lunardi said. "I still have them in the 8 or 9 range. None of the losses have been especially bad.

"The key is losing to bad teams. Ultimately, they have to step up and beat somebody to cement their position, but the sense of gloom with the three losses that's out there is relative to where people thought they could have been two weeks ago, not where they thought they could have been two months ago."

Still, the Bearcats view Sunday's game against No. 11 Oklahoma State (18-2) as a must-win situation.

"We've got to find a way to pull this out," said UC senior forward Leonard Stokes. "We can't keep losing."

In that sense, yes, the Oklahoma State game is crucial, because the longer the losing streak lasts, the more difficult the Bearcats will make things for themselves come Selection Sunday. But there's no reason to panic yet.

UC stood at No. 22 in Friday's Rating Percentage Index. Oklahoma State was No. 3.

"A win over No. 3 in the RPI goes a long way in March," UC coach Bob Huggins said. "It's a tremendous opportunity for us.

"Let's be honest: Our backs are against the wall. We need to come out and win some games. You can't keep losing and say everything's all right."

UC's most impressive win of the season came against Oregon in the Jimmy V Classic Dec. 17. But the Ducks, ranked No. 5 at the time, since have been exposed as an overrated team that doesn't play well away from home.

While a victory over Oklahoma State surely would enhance UC's NCAA Tournament seed, a loss wouldn't necessarily place the Bearcats on the tournament bubble, Lunardi said.

"As long as they have the third-best profile in (Conference USA), it's unlikely they would miss," Lunardi said. "Even though the (selection) committee says it doesn't admit teams by conference and looks at teams individually, we know the lay of the land."

If you buy that theory, the March 1 game at Memphis could be more crucial to UC's tournament hopes than Sunday's game.

Memphis is 12-5, 3-3 in Conference USA's National Division and 45th in the RPI.

"If it's Cincy and Memphis for the third-best profile in the league, you don't want to lose that game," Lunardi said. "If I was Cincy and I had my choice (of which game to win), I would take that one."

Lunardi rates UC as having an 85 percent chance to make the tournament, 70 percent as an at-large team, with the additional 15 percent factored in to account for the Bearcats' chances of winning the C-USA Tournament in Louisville.

Ultimately, Lunardi says, UC is on schedule to end up exactly where most observers expected it to be when the season started.

"They're a first-round (NCAA) team," Lunardi said. "With a good draw, maybe a second-round team. They're in there with Auburn, Texas Tech, Villanova and Arizona State, teams that are going to get in because they're going to have winning records in very good leagues. But none of those teams are going to be playing in the second week, more than likely."

E-mail bkoch@enquirer.com

UC vs. Oklahoma St.

Tipoff: 3:30 p.m. Sunday, Shoemaker Center.

TV: Ch. 9, 2.

Radio: WLW-AM (700).

Upcoming schedule

Here are UC's remaining regular-season games:

Sunday	Oklahoma St. (18-2)
Feb. 15	at Charlotte (8-11)
Feb. 18	Saint Louis (8-11)
Feb. 22	Louisville (17-1)
Feb. 26	East Carolina (11-9)
March 1	at Memphis (13-5)
March 5	UAB (12-6)
March 8	at Marquette (16-3)