By Bill Koch
The Cincinnati Enquirer

Despite five losses in their last six games, the University of Cincinnati Bearcats remain very much in the picture for their 12th straight NCAA Tournament berth.At least that's the unanimous opinion of four college basketball analysts who track that sort of thing.

But UC's recent slide has been duly noted.

"They're falling," said Joe Lunardi, who does the Bracketology feature for ESPN.com. "At this moment, I have them at No. 38 overall, which is a No. 10 seed. There are still some pretty mediocre teams below them like Michigan State, Connecticut, Indiana and Alabama.

"Cincinnati is being propped up by a great schedule and by a pretty decent nonconference performance."

HOME STRETCH

Remaining games on UC's regular-season schedule, with overall records and RPI (entering Thursday) in parentheses: • Saturday: Louisville (19-3, No. 5 RPI) • Feb. 26: E. Carolina (12-11, No. 109) • March 1: at Memphis (17-5, No. 38) • March 5: UAB (14-8, No. 134) • March 8: at Marquette (18-4, No. 9)

Two weeks ago, after UC's win over then-No. 11 Oklahoma State, Lunardi had UC with a No. 6 seed.

On Wednesday, the day after his team lost to Saint Louis, its fifth consecutive conference loss, UC coach Bob Huggins erected the barricades. Practices, which long have been closed to the media, were sealed even more tightly.

As sports information director Tom Hathaway put it in his media advisory: "The team and the coaches will not be available to the media at any time in conjunction with Wednesday's practice."

The Bearcats (14-8, 6-5 in Conference USA) play fourth-ranked Louisville at Shoemaker Center on Saturday.

UC will try to avoid its first two-game losing streak at Shoemaker since the building opened in 1989. The Bearcats lost at Louisville 77-71 on Feb. 5.

UC, ranked No. 28 in the latest Ratings Percentage Index, finds itself in a battle with DePaul (6-5), UAB (6-5), Tulane (6-5), South Florida (6-6) and Charlotte (5-5) for the fourth bye in the March 12-15 conference tournament in Louisville.

The two division winners plus the two teams with the next best records receive first-round byes and are required to win only three games instead of four to win the tournament and its automatic NCAA tourney bid.

Assuming Conference USA gets three teams into the tournament, which it did last year, the Bearcats are probably in a battle with Memphis, the first-place team in the National Division, for that third slot behind Louisville and Marquette.

In the seven-year history of the league, only one conference member has made it to the NCAA Tournament with as few as 18 wins. That was Charlotte, which made it last year with an 18-11 record.

In 2000, Louisville (19-11) and Saint Louis (19-13) both made it with fewer than 20 wins. Louisville also as invited in 1999 with a 19-10 record and Charlotte made it in 1998 with a 19-10 mark.

According to Jerry Palm ofCollegeRPI.com, the Bearcats still haven't lost enough to place them on a level with the true bubble teams, but they need to get things straightened out in a hurry, because their margin for error is disappearing rapidly.

"The Saint Louis loss isn't that bad," Palm said. "That's a team that kind of flies under the radar. They've put together three wins in a row.

"I think Cincinnati is hurting their seed at this point, not their chance of selection."

UC continues to benefit from its two most impressive wins of the season - the 77-52 victory over Oregon in the Jimmy V Classic and the 61-50 victory over Oklahoma State.

"They've got a pretty decent resume compared with teams in other conferences in the fourth or fifth slots," said ESPN analyst Jay Bilas. "I don't see them in any real danger now unless they continue to lose games."

But that very well could happen. UC has five regular-season games left, beginning with the Louisville game. The Bearcats play East Carolina at home on Feb. 26, at Memphis on March 1, UAB at home on March 5 and at No. 11 Marquette on March 8.

Assuming they beat East Carolina and UAB, a win over Memphis probably would cement their tournament spot. A win over either Louisville or Marquette would help them even more.

"It's almost too early to worry about that stuff, so much is going to happen in the next two weeks," Bilas said. "So many teams are so shaky, so fragile. People are talking about Seton Hall and DePaul having a chance. If they've got a chance, Cincinnati certainly does."

The Bearcats never have lost more than six league games during the Huggins era, which began in 1989.

E-mail bkoch@enquirer.com