By Bill Koch
The Cincinnati Enquirer

Followers of the University of Cincinnati football team know now that its 3-0 start was a mirage, but UC coach Rick Minter said he knew at the time that the Bearcats weren't as good as their fast start indicated.

"We did it with smoke and mirrors the first three games," Minter said.

When the smoke cleared, it became apparent rather quickly that this UC team has a lot of holes, especially on offense. The result has been only two wins in the last eight games.

Barring an unlikely turn of events, the Bearcats (5-6 overall, 2-5 Conference USA) will finish their season against rival Louisville (8-3, 4-3) at 11 a.m. today at Nippert Stadium in the annual battle for the Keg of Nails.

The first meeting between the two schools since the Nov. 4 announcement that both would join the Big East Conference in 2005 will be televised nationally on ESPN2.

UC, which has lost four of its last five against Louisville, will try to avoid its first losing season since 1999 and its third in the last six years.

It was the Oct. 4 Southern Miss game that sent the Bearcats into a skid from which they never recovered.

UC led 20-6 early in the second quarter and appeared on the verge of blowing out the Golden Eagles, but John Eubanks' 94-yard kickoff return for a touchdown put Southern Miss back into the game. The Bearcats, with quarterback Gino Guidugli and running back Richard Hall both getting hurt, would not score again in their 22-20 loss.

"That's the one you shake your head at," Minter said. "They ran the darn table in the league and our defense gave up seven points.

"Our defense is the best we've played since '97 around here, but we didn't get hooked up this year with a smooth offense and a smooth kicking game."

Offensively, UC has struggled to find replacements for last year's productive receiving corps. Of the three who began the season as starters, only Derick Ross remains listed as a starter.

Junior college transfer Hannibal Thomas and converted defensive back Thaddeus Lewis have been the Bearcats' most productive receivers in the last two games.

Guidugli now owns all of UC's career and season passing records, but has passed for only 2,368 yards and 13 touchdowns with 10 interceptions this year compared with 3,543 yards, 22 touchdowns and 21 interceptions last year.

"I knew we weren't going to be as explosive as were last year, with all the talented receivers we had and all the experience we had," Guidugli said, "but I thought we were going to perform a little better than we did."

Guidugli has watched his receivers drop plenty of passes, but he has also failed at times to connect with open receivers on plays that could have gone for big gains.

Add it all up and you get a disappointing season for a team that started so well.

"We were going to have to win this year in a different way than we won last year," Minter said. "We could be a big-play team last year with our guys. This year we've had to sustain the ball because we can't go deep as well.

"We're having to make 70-yard drives with 15 plays. Most people can't do that."

The Bearcats return nine starters on offense next year and six on defense.

They open on the road at Ohio State, then play Miami (Ohio) at home and Purdue on the road.

Cincinnati vs. Louisville

Kickoff: 11 a.m. today, Nippert Stadium (35,000).

Records: UC 5-6 overall, 2-5 Conference USA; Louisville 8-3, 4-3.

Radio: WLW-AM (700).

TV: ESPN2.

Line: Louisville by 3.

What to watch: UC's defense will face a Louisville offense that gained a school-record 779 yards last week in a 66-45 win over Houston. The Cardinals lead the conference in rushing, passing, total offense and scoring. Quarterback Stefan LeFors leads the league in total offense with 224 yards per game.

UC	Team stats	UL
381	Offense avg.	485
162	Avg. by rush	219
219	Avg. by pass	266
315	Defense avg.	403
129	Avg. by rush	163
186	Avg. by pass	240
24	Avg. points for	34
25	Avg. pts. against	25