A look at Conference USA in predicted order of finish:
AMERICAN DIVISION
Cincinnati
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DePaul
• Coach: Pat Kennedy (25-36, third year; 351-227, 20th overall).
• Key player: Quentin Richardson, a 6-foot-6 sophomore shooting guard. Moving from the front line to the backcourt could affect Richardson’s most significant talent: a gift for offensive rebounding. He led the nation in that category last year, with even the best and biggest teams unable to deny him.
• Outlook: The Demons still need work at the defensive end. Placing Rashon Burno in the lineup at point guard and forgetting that he’s only 5-5 will help, but they still need to defend better against great wing players. If they become a significant defensive team, they could make a deep run into March.
Louisville
• Coach: Denny Crum (644-264 in 28 years at Louisville).
• Key player: Tony Williams, a 6-7 senior power forward. The Cardinals will be much more competitive with Williams at the forefront. They tended to retreat from the toughest opponents in the past few years, but Williams shows his grit by playing against bigger guys every time out.
• Outlook: The Cardinals are moving closer to regaining their past greatness with a roster rich in guards but still a little thin in the post. It was only 1997 that they reached the NCAA’s Elite Eight and might have advanced farther were it not for an injury to star guard DeJuan Wheat. With players on his side, Crum is a dangerous coach.
UNC Charlotte
• Coach: Bobby Lutz (23-11, second year; 204-102, 10th overall).
• Key player: Jobey Thomas, a 6-4 sophomore shooting guard. After averaging 7.6 points primarily as a reserve, Thomas hasn’t much choice but to move into the lineup and score more consistently and defend more intently.
• Outlook: The 49ers have perhaps their deepest inside game since Conference USA began, but several key players are in their first seasons. They again will depend on execution at both ends and on perimeter shooting. It’s odd for a team to be rebuilding in consecutive seasons, but Lutz is a capable enough coach to take what is left over and blend his recruits into a team that may reach the tournament again.
Saint Louis
• Coach: Lorenzo Romar (first year here; 42-44, fourth overall).
• Key player: Justin Love, 6-2 senior shooting guard. After missing most of last year’s preseason with an injury, Love came back a bit out of shape but still showed he can be a prolific scorer.
• Outlook: The Billikens’ big men, 6-11 Chris Heinrich and 6-9 Matt Baniak, regressed as sophomores and need to recover for Saint Louis to be competitive in the division. With freshman point guard Marque Perry taking over the offense, this is the first time in five years there is a legitimate playmaker in place.
Marquette
• Coach: Tom Crean (first season).
• Key player: Cordell Henry, 5-9 sophomore point guard. Henry struggled in his first season, looking slow and unsure of himself — not what you would expect from a guy recruited for his blazing quickness. His shooting percentage was dreadful and he didn’t get much done in setting up his teammates. But with confidence and a sense of comfort in a new system, he could be one of the league’s best at his position.
• Outlook: There isn’t the talent or athleticism necessary to make an impact in the league, but the assembled players have beaten some of the best teams and have been well-coached. Crean is working to establish a base for his program.
NATIONAL DIVISION
South Florida
• Coach: Seth Greenberg (39-45, fourth year; 144-116 10th overall).
• Key player: Altron Jackson, a 6-6 sophomore forward. The Bulls pretty much know what they’ll get from star forward B.B. Waldon (roughly 18 points and eight rebounds), but Jackson has the ability to become one of C-USA’s finest players. Plus, for a team short on long-distance shooting, Jackson at least has a mid-range game to complement the team’s baseline strength.
• Outlook: The return of center Scott Johnson from a year lost to injury should rejuvenate this team. He’s the best deep shooter on the team even though he’s the center, which helps disarm lane-based defenses. The Bulls are as tough and deep as any team in the league — though clearly not as talented as UC or DePaul — and they’ll easily win this division even if point guard recruit Marlon Dawson doesn’t provide the direction Greenberg is hoping to see.
Southern Mississippi
• Coach: James Green (48-32; fourth year; same overall.)
• Key player: Vandarel Jones, 6-9 senior power forward. Jones is the one guy on this team who has no excuse not to be a double-figure scorer. The others either lack the skill or experience to expect as much.
• Outlook: This will be one of the league’s best defensive teams, and it will need to be, because everybody that plays USM will look great on defense, as well. Aside from Jones, the other hope for some point production is 6-8 junior-college recruit Carl Henderson, who has a low-post game and should get the opportunity to be a focus of the attack. Although most of the program’s defensive success under Green has been in halfcourt man-to-man, this team may use the quickness provided by guards Mel Cauthen and Earl Flowers to attack the ball in the backcourt.
Memphis
• Coach: Tic Price (30-27, third year; 93-54, sixth overall).
• Key player: Kelly Wise, 6-10 sophomore center. There aren’t many coaches in the league who don’t believe Wise has the potential to be outstanding. He is agile, quick off his feet and has the long arms that make some players natural defenders.
• Outlook: The Tigers were an undisciplined mess last season as Price allowed slackers Jimmie Hunter and Jermaine Ousley to do as they pleased. He has been tougher on this team and has a few tougher customers, such as small forward recruit Shannon Forman. The problem will be generating offense. Memphis isn’t quick enough to do a lot with pressure defense, and no one is a consistent perimeter shooter.
Houston
• Coach: Clyde Drexler (10-17, second year; same overall.)
• Key player: George Williams, a 6-8 freshman forward. The Cougars have two all-league-level players in forward Kenny Younger and guard Gee Gervin, but Williams’ arrival could turn those guys from stat producers to win producers. Williams is a versatile forward who can shoot along the baseline or bang underneath.
• Outlook: The Cougars were often sloppy last season and had their greatest success against teams that also were haphazard (3-1 against Memphis and Tulane). They were especially weak defensively. That could change with the addition of former Texas point guard Bernard Smith and Williams. Drexler has to get Gervin believing the game is played at both ends.
UAB
• Coach: Murry Bartow (59-38, fourth year; same overall.)
• Key player: Torrey Ward, 6-3 senior guard. Ward is one of those players no one usually notices until he’s gone. He has played out of position through most of his career but shoots well and defends the opposition’s best perimeter player.
• Outlook: This team’s continued existence in the C-USA first division largely depends on the development of point guard LeAndrew Bass and forward Myron Ransom. Neither has fulfilled the potential he displayed in spot duty as a freshman two seasons ago, partly because Bartow kept them behind upperclassmen who were talented but unreliable.
Tulane
• Coach: Perry Clark (165-134, 11th year; same overall.)
• Key player: LeDaryl Billingsley, a 6-7 junior power forward. In the final month of last season, Billingsley found the ability that previously he had misplaced, partly because of injury problems. He must play with that kind of ferocity all the time.
• Outlook: There’s more talent here than the Green Wave’s recent struggles would suggest. The problem is that the halfcourt defense generally has been miserable, and the athletes aren’t quite good enough for Clark’s pressing style to make a difference. If the coach could somehow make a convincing shift to halfcourt ball, there would be a good chance for Tulane to escape the basement.
