It's that time of year when everyone's making predictions or resolutions. I have
a secret predeliction for supermarket tabloids, so I tend toward predictions.
I should also add that if I really could see the future, I'd be busy making a
fortune in the stock market rather than writing this column.
Anyway, here
are some predictions for the coming year. They're quite conservative, based on
current trends. Maybe some of them will even come true.
1. Microsoft and
Apple will change direction.
Apple's managers will finally discover that
their company is in deep trouble and they must focus on software rather than
hardware. The purchase of Next Software is just the beginning.
Battered by
competition from the new Mac clones and given new direction by the return of
Steve Jobs, Apple will start phasing out the hardware business. The company
will enter a crash program to produce a new multi-platform operating system to
leapfrog Windows 95.
Apple will try to create an OS not only faster and more
stable, but easier to write programs for than Windows.
Apple also will aim
its energies on software for the graphics and multimedia fields. If System 8
succeeds (and that's a big IF), Apple will survive into the next century as a
graphics and home-computer niche company. But it will disappear from the
business computing world.
Microsoft will attempt to adapt the Windows
operating system to run everything from your home computer to your toaster. This
is part of Microsoft's plan to get a license fee for every appliance or gizmo
sold in the world.
The strategy will fail, since consumers won't wait two
years and two service pack upgrades for a toaster that reliably browns bread.
2. The war of the Internet will switch from Explorer vs. Navigator to
television vs. computer.
Consumer-electronics companies will try to
stabilize Web technology by introducing an array of products that will put the
Internet in your living room, on your telephone and in your briefcase.
Cable
companies will start competing with Internet service providers (ISPs), and some
cable companies and ISPwill merge.
ISPs now bill on hours of Internet use -
most offer unlimited service for $20 a month. In the next few years, ISPs will
bill like cable television companies, offering different ''tiers'' of service.
Depending on how much you pay, you'll have access to different areas of the Web,
including subscription-only megasites. Traditional ISPs will remain, but many
sites will become unavailable to free surfers.
Although the Communications
Decency Act died in the courts, after the Internet is sitting on top of every
home television set, the ISP/cable industry and/or various government agencies
will step in to ban the smut and hate peddlers.
3. A big shakeout in the
online services industry.
Big money losers CompuServe and Prodigy will
face major crises in 1997. One or both could shut down or merge with AOL - which
emerged in 1996 as the undisputed winner.
ISPs also will consolidate. Larger
regional and national ISPs, offering better technical support and capital
necessary to improve network capacity, will buy up smaller local companies
(they'll call it ''buying subscribers''). Within a couple years, the mom-and-pop
ISP will become as rare as the mom-and-pop grocery store.
4. Digital
photography will finally take off.
Just as consumers discovered e-mail in
1995 and 1996, new digital cameras and color printers will finally attract
consumers. Mom and Dad will snap photos of the kids to e-mail to Grandma.
The
next new computer gizmo everyone will want in 1997 is an inexpensive box that
stores information on CD-ROM. CD-ROM ''burners'' for PCs have been around for
years, but now, they'll be available to the home market. The indestructible CD
will be the perfect place to store that digital photo album.
5. Books will
make a comeback.
Here's where I go out on a limb: Because of the growing
popularity of the Internet, most of which is text and pictures, people
rediscover reading. They also will discover that while it's easy to grab lots of
information quickly from the Internet, it's easier to digest that information
on paper - in books.
E-mail Charles Brewer with questions, comments and suggestions at cbrewer@enquirer.com