If I were smart, I'd be rich. I'm not rich so I'm obviously not that smart - but occasionally I get lucky.
At the start of this year, I made some predictions about coming changes in the computer world. Let's see how I did:
1. Apple will change direction: I predicted that Apple Computer's management would finally wake up, get out of the hardware business and start producing ground-breaking software.
I was wrong. Way wrong.
Under Steve Jobs' renewed leadership, I think Apple is stepping back a decade. Apple has stopped licensing Macintosh clones and appears to be looking to Microsoft to provide Mac software development. Many would say that is the strategy that put the company where it is today.
Apple stock, after dropping below $15 in July, is trading just above $20, exactly where it was in January.
2. Online services will consolidate: I predicted that CompuServe and Prodigy would disappear this year, probably merging with America Online.
I should have bought stock in America Online.
AOL indeed did swallow up CompuServe (in a complex deal involving network services company WorldCom Inc.). And AOL stock has doubled in price since January.
(Just for the record, the only stock I own is Gannett, the parent company of the Enquirer.)
3. Growing use of television to access the Internet: I don't think this is happening yet, but I wasn't the only one seeing it coming.
Microsoft's Bill Gates saw it too, and when Bill sees a competitor on the horizon, he quickly moves to squash or swallow it. In the case of WebTV, he swallowed it.
Let's recap: One thing restricting growth of the World Wide Web is you need a computer to use it. Only an estimated 40 percent of U.S. homes have a computer, but almost all homes have a television. Put the Web on TV, and - voila! - you've more than doubled your potential audience.
WebTV Networks, a small Silicon Valley company, was a pioneer in marketing this idea. It had a nifty TV set-top box that surfs the Net with a remote control.
In April, Microsoft snapped up WebTV for $425 million.
There are other companies still out there producing Web-television boxes, but Microsoft obviously saw the market potential and made sure that it had a foot in the door before it closed.
4. Digital photography: I might have been a little early suggesting that in 1997, digital cameras would begin replacing film for home snapshots.
Digital cameras are appearing in stores, but the film companies aren't going down without a fight. New film promises great pictures in any light - something digital can't promise yet.
And the CD-ROM technology needed to store those digital photos is mired in a battle over standards. Oh, well, maybe next year.
5. Books will make a comeback: This was kind of a flip prediction, since many would argue that books never really left. However, online bookstores have opened new markets for books, offering better selection and prices for customers.
The stock of online bookstores has done well this year. Since January, Barnes & Noble stock has doubled, and Amazon.Com stock has almost tripled.
NAILING HIS SPOT ON THE WEB:
More than a year ago, I wrote about Tim Carter, the Cincinnati builder who decided to trade in his Skil saw for a word processor, writing columns for the Enquirer.
He started syndicating the popular do-it-yourself advice columns and then opened a Web site http://www.askbuild.com
where visitors can read his columns.
Since I wrote about Tim in April, 1996, he's been busy with his site, which is now getting 30,000 hits a month. In July, it was named one of the 50 best Web sites by WebMaster magazine http://www.cio.com/WebMaster/080197_internet.html.
Other winners included Microsoft, Apple, the U.S. Postal Service, the Environmental Protection Agency, Ticketmaster - you know, the folks with the million-dollar budgets.
Pretty amazing stuff for a guy working out of his home.
E-mail Charles Brewer with questions, comments and suggestions at CBrewer@enquirer.com Charles Brewer's columns can be found at http://enquirer.com/columns/brewer