It's that time of year again, time for my second annual attempt to be a techno Jeanne Dixon.
Since I like to play it safe, my predictions for 1998 rely heavily on current trends. I'm not going to suggest that Elvis will be discovered at Bill Gates' house or aliens will save Apple Computer.
So let's gaze into my murky crystal ball:
A shakeout on the Web.
In 1997, everyone was going to get rich on the Internet - 1998 will be the year that they realize they won't.
The Web will continue its phenomenal growth, but companies that created high-cost promotional sites will rethink their investment. The Web will be used more as a communication tool for businesses, and everyone will be talking IntrAnet.
The area I think will suffer the most in 1998 will be Web publishing. The slim pickings of Web advertising can't yet sustain the resources needed to produce high-quality content. Internet-only 'zines are hurting. Those that survive 1998 will be supported by traditional print products.
This trend already has begun: Wired Digital, the company that produces online 'zine HotWired, search site HotBot and Wired News, is losing money and recently cut 20 percent of its staff. (Wired magazine is doing well.) Internet mega-publisher CNET is also reportedly struggling and hoping that its new online service venture, Snap!, can bring in some much-needed cash. Even MSNBC is tightening its belt.
Faster Internet connections - from the phone company.
A big part of the reason that the Internet is so slow is that most of us connect through a standard voice-grade telephone line.
All this data traffic is a problem for the phone companies, too. But they have a solution, and 1998 might be the year they start making it attractive for consumers.
ADSL (it stands for asymmetrical digital subscriber line) can give users access at speeds up to 50 times faster than a standard 28.8 kbps modem. Major phone companies began testing ADSL technology last year, and Ameritech Corp. recently introduced an ADSL Internet access service in parts of the Midwest.
While currently expensive, I think ADSL will be the eventual replacement to the ''dirt road'' connections we all must live with now. We might even get a chance to try it out in 1998.
Need a good computer? Call Domino's.
Who makes the most money selling computers? Michael Dell. He sells millions of computers from his Web site, www.dell.com. And each is made to order, fresh.
Dell is not alone. Gateway 2000 and Micron have been building and selling fresh computers off their Web sites for a couple of years. This year, they were joined by Apple and CompUSA.
It's a trend that will grow in 1998, for two reasons: Customers are getting more sophisticated about computers, and retailers are getting stuck with outdated pre-built systems.
I think this trend will continue in 1998, until soon you will buy a computer the way you buy a pizza. (If it's not delivered in 30 days, is it free?)
A PC for under $1,000?
Try used.
About half of American homes have a PC. That means the other half don't. Computer makers labor under the illusion that if one of them could come up with a fully functional PC for under $1,000, this would change.
They're wrong. The problem is that personal computers are such complex and finicky beasts.
So will 1998 be the year of the cheap and easy PC? I doubt it. The folks who make computers are still trying to outdo each other in speed and whiz-bang gadgets.
As for the sub-$1,000 PC, we don't need it. The market is currently flooded with used 486 and low-end Pentium PCs that can be picked up for a lot less than $1,000. And they work just fine for what most of us do with a PC: Write letters and bump along the crowded byways of the Internet.
Send e-mail to Charles Brewer at CBrewer@enquirer.com.
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