BY PATRICK CROWLEY
The Cincinnati Enquirer
There used to be a trailer for a low-rent horror flick that went something like this:
"Be afraid. Be very afraid."
That's the terrifying message some Boone County Republicans are trying to send the county's Democrats, particularly county judge-executive candidate Jim Collins, currently the county's full-time administrator.
Republican judge-executive hopeful Gary Moore and his right-hand political guy, Florence banker Bob Elliston, don't look like a couple of menacing spooks who hide in dark hallways, waiting to jump out and scream "boo!"
Heck, Mr. Moore plays Jesus Christ in an annual Easter pageant at Florence Baptist Church. And during a lunch this week at a Covington deli, Mr. Elliston looked the part of a banker, what with his stylish tie and coordinated suspenders.
But they are brandishing some numbers that could turn any Boone County Democrat white with fear.
Packaged in a slick, four-color binder, the numbers show county voting trends over the past few elections. And it's a pretty grisly picture for the party of Jackson, Roosevelt, Clinton and Collins. "These numbers show where this county is going politically, and it's going Republican," Mr. Moore said between bites of a chicken salad sandwich.
Using red and yellow pie charts set on a deep blue background, Mr. Elliston walked his lunch date through a series of numbers that show the success Republican candidates have had in Boone County:
Governor's race, 1996: Republican Larry Forgy, 9,990; Democrat Paul Patton, the eventual statewide winner, 4,835.
Presidential race, 1996: Republican Bob Dole, 15,085; Democrat Bill Clinton, 8,379.
U.S. Senate race, 1996: Republican U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell, 17,157; Democrat Steve Beshear, 6,605.
U.S. House race, 1996: Republican Jim Bunning, 18,669; Democrat Denny Bowman, 5,846.
State Senate race, 1996: Republican Dick Roeding, who lives in Kenton County, 14,958; Democrat Sandy Easton, a Boone County resident, 9,298.
State House 60th District, 1996: Republican Rep. Paul Marcotte, 5,329; Democrat Kenny French, of Gallatin County, 2,648.
State House 66th District, 1996: Republican Charlie Walton, 9,881; Republican Bob Hoffman, 5,151.
The folder also charts the growth of Republican Party registrations over the past 29 years. For instance, in 1969, Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 6,400. Today, the spread is less than 600.
But the numbers that really inspire the Republicans are from the 1993 county judge-executive race, and the 1995 statewide contest for Kentucky attorney general.
In 1993, Democratic incumbent Ken Lucas, who announced this week he is stepping down to concentrate on his congressional race with Boone County Republican Gex "Jay" Williams, beat a little-known Republican by the name of David Buck.
Mr. Buck, a pilot for Comair, is a nice-enough guy. He is also friendly and smart. But he was a political neophyte and not exactly the best campaigner to walk down the trail.
Mr. Buck should have been no match for an incumbent like Mr. Lucas, who has lived in Boone County for decades and has been involved in a wide array of community service organizations - including high-profile posts with Northern Kentucky University and the Tri-County Economic Development Corp. -- and business ventures in the region.
In addition, Mr. Lucas spent far more money than Mr. Buck, who made the unfortunate gaffe of railing on the county budget and then having Mr. Lucas turn it on him by raising doubts about Mr. Buck's numbers and his understanding of the county's finances.
Still, Mr. Lucas beat Mr. Buck by a margin of only about 1,300 votes, 6,351 to 5,038.
Then there is the attorney general's race of three years ago between Democrat Ben Chandler, who easily won statewide with 60 percent of the vote, and eastern Kentucky Republican Will T. Scott. Mr. Chandler, of course, is a member of the first family of Kentucky politics. His grandfather was two-time governor and U.S. Senator A.B. "Happy" Chandler, and the younger Chandler is considered a sure-winner when he decides to seek higher office someday.
But Mr. Scott, who did little campaigning in Northern Kentucky, whipped Mr. Chandler in Boone County by a margin of almost 3,000 votes.
"You look at numbers like that," Mr. Elliston said, "and you can see why we're encouraged."
Out at the Boone County Administration Building in Burlington, Mr. Collins quickly peruses the numbers and, surprisingly, doesn't crawl under his desk in fear.
"I don't spook that easy," he says with a smile.
"Look, Boone County has always voted Republican in federal and a lot of state races," Mr. Collins continued. "But locally, the Democrats do well. We hold all the major offices in the courthouse but one (property value administrator), and we'll do well this fall."
If Mr. Collins is scared, he doesn't look it or show it.
Maybe he's confident. Or maybe he just knows how to hide it.
Patrick Crowley covers Kentucky politics for the Enquirer. He can be reached at 578-5581, or (502) 875-7526 in Frankfort.
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