Wednesday, September 01, 1999
Summer promos can predict network bombs
BY JOHN KIESEWETTER
The Cincinnati Enquirer
Premiere week is less than three weeks away, and already CBS is privately predicting which of its shows could be the first canceled.
“By late August, we know which shows are facing an uphill battle (with viewers), and which ones aren't even on their radar,” said David Poltrack, CBS executive vice president for research and planning.
CBS tracks viewers' responses to promotional spots for new shows to determine which ones could be dead on arrival when the TV season officially starts Sept. 20.
A year ago, for example, CBS executives knew that the Brian Benben Show, a TV newsroom comedy, was in deep trouble — despite a cushy time slot following Everybody Loves Raymond at 9:30 p.m. Monday.
“Benben was DOA. We knew right away,” Mr. Poltrack said.
Based solely on “promos” that had started airing in July last year, viewers decided they had no interest in Mr. Benben, the former Dream On star, or his sitcom about a bitter news anchor demoted in favor of a Barbie-and-Ken team.
They didn't want — or need — to see the show to know they wouldn't like it.
It's something we've all done: Watched a promo and said, “What a dumb show!”
The Big Four networks — CBS, ABC, NBC and Fox — contract with Statistical Research Inc., which randomly calls 515 adults ages 18-49 every week in late summer to measure their awareness about new fall TV shows. CBS uses this data to develop a casualty list; the other networks say the process simply indicates which shows have made an early impression on viewers.
“Before they (shows) get on the air, we have a list of "Haves' and "Have Nots,'” Mr. Poltrack said.
Premiere Weak?
Maybe we should call it Premiere Weak.
Networks began advertising fall shows in late July, about eight weeks before their premieres, to break through the confusing clutter of 37 new fall shows.
They're trying to establish the difference between Once and Again and Now and Again. Or Wasteland and Badland.
And Angel, Action, Ally or Mike O'Malley.
ABC has a sitcom called Oh, Grow Up. Sometimes viewers are bombarded by so many fall promos that they talk back to their sets. Oh, Shut Up.
“Promos can actually get people NOT to watch a show,” admitted Mr. Poltrack, a 30-year CBS marketing and research veteran.
“People basically have a curiosity about the show, because they've heard about it, and the promos gradually over the course of the summer convince them that this is NOT something they want to watch,” he said.
Aware that Benben wasn't making a favorable impression on viewers, CBS “kept trying and changing and rechanging the promos, but we could see nothing was working,” Mr. Poltrack said.
CBS executives held slim hopes for the show when it debuted last Sept. 21. “We knew because it was on Monday night it would get forced sampling,” he said.
When ratings plunged 33 percent after Raymond,CBS canceled Benben in four weeks and replaced by Ted Danson's Becker.
A tricky business
The network promotion business is a tricky one. Thirty-second promos can create unreachable expectations. Or make us feel like we've already seen the whole show.
“There have been occasions where you promote the show so intensely, for such a long period of time, that by the time it's come on, people think they've already missed it. They can't believe that they've not already seen it,” Mr. Poltrack said.
Frasier producers have complained that NBC ruined their best punch lines by revealing them in promos.
“That's a big pet peeve of mine. I say, "If they hear the punch line 40 times before the show gets on the air, it's not so funny when the show goes on the air,'” Mr. Poltrack said.
Promotions for NBC's West Wing, the White House drama by Aaron Sorkin (Sports Night) and John Wells (ER), have made a big impression on viewers this summer, according to the Statistical Research scorecard. One reason: NBC has been running West Wing spots since the NBA playoffs in May.
“What you really want to do is peak right on premiere week. The normal process is about an eight-week period to build awareness,” Mr. Poltrack said.
So CBS is trying to find out who's dead or alive.
“In this kind of research, you get the behavior pretty right,” Mr. Poltrack said. “People say, "Well, I'm not going to watch it!' But people are incredibly inarticulate in telling us why” they're not going to watch a show.
Maybe it boils down to four words: “What a dumb show!”
John Kiesewetter is Enquirer TV/radio critic. His column appears Monday and Wednesday. Write: 312 Elm St., Cincinnati 45202; fax: 768-8330.
John Kiesewetter is Enquirer TV/radio critic. Write him at 312 Elm St., Cincinnati, 45202.
