BY LUCY MAY
The Cincinnati Enquirer
Cincinnati Reds Managing Executive John Allen said he expects a new ballpark for the team to cost roughly $230 million.
It's the first time the Reds have provided an estimate for their vision of a new ballpark, and it's $50 million more than the latest stadium estimate Hamilton County officials have made public.
The Reds' estimate would bring the total cost of the county's stadium development project to more than $700 million, well over the $544 million project price tag touted during the campaign to pass a half-cent sales tax increase to fund stadium construction.
Experts say it's not unusual for such estimates to quickly grow outdated in the big-money world of stadium construction.
The estimated cost of the Cincinnati Bengals' new Paul Brown Stadium has grown from $170 million in 1995 to $270 million, which doesn't include land acquisition or all the design costs.
''When you quote stadium costs, you have to ask whether you're including land, design fees, demolition,'' Mr. Allen said. ''It's very, very difficult to get to where you're comparing apples to apples.''
He stressed that the $230 million figure is rough and does not include any necessary land acquisition, design fees or demolition. Rather, it's the cost of building the ballpark itself and parking, Mr. Allen said.
The team arrived at the estimate by studying the prices of stadiums built during the 1990s and adding an inflationary factor. It is not based on a specific design, since there is none.
Initial estimates were that an old-fashioned, brick and wrought-iron, open-air ballpark with natural turf would cost about $160 million. That was made in August 1995, at the same time the initial Bengals estimate was made.
An informal estimate made in March 1996 by the construction team of Turner Construction, of Cincinnati and Barton-Mallow of Detroit put the ballpark's cost at $180.5 million.
County Commissioner Tom Neyer Jr. said the price is fluid.
''It's a little premature for us to be tossing numbers around,'' he said. ''You could spend $200 million. You could spend more than that.''
A $230 million project is in line with estimates offered by those who study the business of sports.
Andrew Zimbalist, an economics professor at Smith College in Northampton, Mass., and nationally recognized expert in sports economics, said the cost of an old-fashioned ballpark for the Reds will likely be between $200 million and $250 million.
That figure doesn't include land acquisition or any necessary road improvements or the relocation of sewers or utility lines, Mr. Zimbalist said.
Susan Hofacre, head of the sports administration department at Robert Morris College in Pennsylvania, estimated a cost of $220 million to $230 million for a 40,000-seat stadium. Her estimate includes the land.
Mr. Zimbalist and Ms. Hofacre base their estimates on their study of what other teams' ballparks have cost, and both stress that their figures are rough as a result.
Neither estimate includes cost overruns, which have been substantial in other stadium projects. Mr. Zimbalist put the average cost overrun at 20 percent to 30 percent.
A 1994 study by Dean Baim, an associate professor of economics and finance at Pepperdine University in California, found that stadium cost overruns drove construction costs an average of 73 percent over budget. If his finding holds true, that means a $230 million stadium could ultimately cost as much as $398 million.
County officials say it's impossible to know how much the Reds' new home will cost because the team and county haven't even agreed on a ballpark site, much less a specific design that will determine the project's price tag.
In fact, the number of seats in a new Reds ballpark hasn't even been agreed to, said Gary VanHart, Hamilton County's director of public works.
The site decision comes down to Broadway Commons, at Broadway and Reading Road, or a spot between Cinergy Field and Riverfront Coliseum known as The Wedge or Baseball on Main.
The site, number of luxury boxes, club seats, concession locations and amount of office space make a big difference in determining the cost of such stadium projects, Mr. Zimbalist said. High-tech features such as interactive video screens at individual seats drive up the cost, too, Ms. Hofacre said.
The degree to which the Reds stadium includes those things ultimately will be resolved in a lease agreement with the team.
The costs of similar stadiums around the country have varied widely, in part because of those different features and varying market and labor conditions.
The Reds argue that a retro ballpark smaller than Cinergy Field, perhaps with 45,000 seats, and built for baseball only would draw more fans and generate new excitement about the team.
The project wouldn't stop with the stadium itself. Mr. Allen said the other ''key ingredient'' in negotiations with the county is a Reds museum or hall of fame.
Such an attraction would not only draw fans to the ballpark before games begin, it also would provide an attraction that would generate revenue for the team year-round, Mr. Allen said.
That's what the Atlanta Braves did. A team official said the many educational activities around the Braves' new Turner Field draw fans - and their money - to the ballpark three hours before games start.
Mr. Allen said he expects Cincinnati could do something similar and then some, especially considering the Reds' history as the first professional baseball team.
''Theirs was OK,'' he said. ''But I think we could do it bigger and better.''
Geoff Hobson contributed to this report.
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