Cincinnati Public Schools could lose nearly a fifth of its students during the next decade unless its buildings and programs improve drastically, according to new demographic projections.
Representatives from Steed-Hammond-Paul Architects, who have studied dis trict facilities since last year, warned Wednesday that enrollment would fall by 8,000 to about 40,000 students.
The projections were done as part of a study of what to do with the district's decaying buildings.
The firm conducted 20 focus groups and more than 1,500 mail and telephone surveys with parents, teachers, students and adults without CPS students to determine what the community wants.
Five "customer values" arose - good facilities, a safe environment, easy access to good teaching and resources, education promoting parent and community involvement and a team approach to education among teachers, parents and administrators.
Most of the district's 81 buildings do not meet those values adequately, the survey says.
The district's building plan involves more than $360 million worth of renovation and replacement - and at least one levy tapping taxpayers for financial support.
"One of the greatest problems with public education is that we have not created an academic atmosphere conducive to learning," said Ron E. Felder, a member of the district's facilities master plan advisory committee.
A big reason for the enrollment dip is students' flight to private and parochial schools, said Lauren DellaBella, vice president of planning and business development with Steed-Hammond-Paul. Many students who start kindergarten in Cincinnati switch districts before graduation; for example, the class entering kindergarten in 1991 included 4,636 students but numbered only 3,778 last year, she said.
Ms. DellaBella declined to speculate why students increasingly prefer private over public, but school board member Lynwood Battle agreed that poor building conditions discourage some.
The city's declining population and residents' transiency as evidenced by low home ownership rates also prompt constant shifts in enrollment, said Mr. Battle, chairman of the board's facilities committee.
And a drop in births citywide could aggravate efforts to stabilize and increase enrollment, Ms. DellaBella said. Births fell 24 percent citywide from 1990 to 1996.
Steed-Hammond-Paul is expected to finish its study by year's end. Its suggestions likely will be implemented in the next decade, district Vice President Steve Ottemann said.
Replacing all the buildings is impossible, Mr. Ottemann said. But a 1993 study found that $360 million was needed to replace five buildings and do basic repairs on others.
"We would at least want to make those changes," Mr. Ottemann said.
Administrators will ask the state and taxpayers to share the cost, and after stadiums are built, Hamilton County has promised to provide annual support.
This fall, district officials will hold public hearings and appear on radio and TV shows to discuss the plan.
"How to fund this is the big question now, otherwise you really are putting the horse before the cart," Mr. Battle said. "When we make these changes, it will be with the advice and consent of those who will pay for it."
The demographic projections prove the district must reconsider how it does things, school board President Lynn Marmer said.
The 1993 facilities study "assumed that everything would be repaired," she said. "And my question is, do we really need everything we have?"
But Cincinnati Federation of Teachers President Tom Mooney blamed district policy, rather than bad buildings, for eroding enrollment.
"Certainly there are demographic trends that any urban district struggles with," Mr. Mooney said. "But policy decisions by this board have aggravated those conditions and driven families out of the district - too many reorganizations, closures of successful schools and uncertainty about whether certain programs and services will continue to be there." Mark Skertic contributed to this report.
