BY MICHAEL HAWTHORNE
Enquirer Columbus Bureau
With about three weeks remaining before voters decide the fate of a sales tax increase for schools and property tax relief, they are split evenly on the issue, according to a new Ohio Poll.
The poll, sponsored by the Enquirer and the University of Cincinnati, found that 44 percent of Ohio's likely voters would vote for the one-cent tax increase, while 45 percent would oppose it. Eleven percent were undecided.
The random telephone survey of 614 likely voters from across the state, conducted April 1 through last Wednesday, had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.
If voters approve state Issue 2 on the May 5 ballot, the state sales tax would increase to 6 cents from 5 cents on the dollar. Half of the $1.1 billion raised annually would go to schools, with the rest used for tax breaks for homeowners.
Support for a sales-tax increase for schools dropped significantly from an Ohio Poll taken in late January and early February, when 62 percent of those surveyed said they favored the idea.
Alfred J. Tuchfarber, director of UC's Institute for Policy Research, which conducted the study, said there are two differences between the poll earlier this year and the latest survey.
The latest poll surveyed only likely voters instead of registered voters, he said. It also gauged opinions about a specific proposal, not a general idea.
Undecided will rule
"If this was a poll right before the election, Issue 2 would be in trouble," Mr. Tuchfarber said. "But our experience with tax issues suggests the level of support can only go up, not down." The challenge for proponents, he said, is to convert a majority of the undecided vote before Election Day. Previous research shows that voters who remain undecided on ballot issues as they head to the polls usually vote against the issue.
The Ohio Poll was conducted as proponents and opponents began their advertising campaigns. The first pro-Issue 2 ad, which avoids any direct mention of a sales-tax increase, is now airing statewide. Opponents expect to begin radio and TV ads within the next week. Gov. George Voinovich and the Republican-controlled General Assembly approved the tax plan earlier this year. It attempts to comply with an Ohio Supreme Court decision that declared the state's school-funding system inadequate and unconstitutional.
Curt Steiner, Mr. Voinovich's chief of staff, is on leave to manage the campaign in favor of Issue 2. He said the poll results were consistent with internal surveys.
Proponents are trying to cast the issue as a compromise between those who think schools need more money and others who oppose raising taxes at all.
"It's good to see we're within striking distance even before we start getting our message out there," Mr. Steiner said. "We're confident we can persuade people that voting for this issue will help finance some significant improvements in education."
Unlike previous surveys, the question asked during the latest Ohio Poll also mentioned the fact that the sales-tax increase would give residential property owners some form of tax relief.
Some opponents, including most of the state's education establishment and the AFL-CIO, argue the plan lacks sufficient funds for the poorest schools and won't do enough to address the long-term problems of Ohio's school buildings, ranked the worst among the 50 states by a 1996 federal study.
"Your message is only as good as your product, and they can't sell a bad product," said Brian Rothenberg, spokesman for the Vote No on Issue 2 Coalition. "There are no guarantees in this other than the fact that people will continue to face local tax levies to pay for all the unfunded mandates they've given schools."
Scott Pullins, executive director of the National Taxpayers Union of Ohio, was encouraged by the number of undecided voters in the poll.
"One of the things we need to do is convince people that we can get the schools more money without raising taxes," Mr. Pullins said.
Voters in most demographic groups were split evenly on the tax issue, the poll found.
Geographically, opposition to the sales tax increase was strongest in the Cincinnati area, where 52 percent said they would vote against it. Support also was weak in the Cleveland area, where Issue 2 trailed, with 49 percent opposed and 41 percent in favor.
The highest levels of support came from the Columbus area. Fifty-four percent of central Ohio voters said they would vote for it.
Voters least likely to support the tax increase were Democrats, renters, African Americans and voters between the ages of 46 and 64. In that age group, 48 percent said they would vote against the tax, while 40 percent favored it.
Issue 1 support sizable
Forty-seven percent of likely voters between the ages of 30 and 45 -- many of whom may have children in school -- favored the tax plan, while 45 percent opposed it.
The poll also asked the sampling of likely voters why they would support or oppose the tax plan.
Eighteen percent of those who oppose the proposal say they do so because they are "against raising taxes," while 7 percent don't believe the tax proceeds will be used for schools.
Twenty-five percent of the tax supporters say they would vote for it because "the schools need help." Another 14 percent said they think it will take the tax burden off property owners, who pay more than half the cost of public education in many school districts. The poll found sizable support for Issue 1, a companion proposal that would authorize the state to issue bonds to finance school construction and repairs. Forty-nine percent of likely voters said they favored the proposed constitutional amendment, while 24 percent opposed it and 27 percent were undecided.
