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E N Q U I R E R S P O R T S C O V E R A G
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Saturday, May 2, 1998 BY NEIL SCHMIDT
Any number of the 34,958 registered thoroughbreds in the current crop of 3-year-olds were considered contenders for the Kentucky Derby. Fifteen of them made it and will break from the gate at 5:27 p.m. today.
All heck breaks with them.
"It's been analyzed and analyzed, but the race could very well unfold differently than you think on paper," Favorite Trick trainer Bill Mott said. "Once you get on the track and play "My Old Kentucky Home,' it's all out of your hands."
It will be difficult forecasting the winner or the weather. But there's a 99 percent chance of change. Countless story lines and the near-certainty of new names in the winner's circle make this a drastically different Derby.
Cincinnati will root for Favorite Trick, owned by West Chester retiree Joseph LaCombe. The commonwealth will pull for Halory Hunter, owned by former Kentucky basketball coach Rick Pitino. The rest of the nation has plenty of choices, most of them neophytes. Excepting Cape Town's connections, just two trainers and three jockeys involved today have won the Derby before.
Eight of the 13 trainers and 10 of the 15 ownership groups are participating in their first Derby.
"If I don't win, I hope it's a new face," said trainer Bob Baffert, who enters Indian Charlie and Real Quiet. "I wish every trainer could experience it. It's the greatest feeling in the world."
Baffert, who boasts a runner-up (Cavonnier, 1996) and a winner (Silver Charm) in his first two Derbies, is trying to become just the sixth trainer to win back-to-back. None have done it three straight years.
"It's almost like it's expected of me," he said. "I'm the target now."
This is considered a good betting race, because of the lack of a prohibitive favorite. Background checks won't help -- this is the first Derby without a dual qualifier (meeting both breeding and performance standards) in a quarter-century.
Most of the top contenders are fighting history:
"I hope he can get to the mile-and-an-eighth pole and then momentum takes over from there," Mott said. "He's a good athlete. He'll do some things his pedigree says he shouldn't."
Should he remain the favorite at post time, he also gets that jinx: The last Derby favorite to win was Spectacular Bid in 1979. "He's one of the greatest athletes you'll see in awhile," Baffert said. "I never thought I'd have another Silver Charm, but I do. He's a big-game player."
"He's 5-for-7 and he's tied for the seventh choice," Victory Gallop trainer Elliott Walden said of his horse. "That says something about the quality of the field."
Favorite Trick is 9-for-10 and just third choice in the morning line.
The forecast calls for a 20-percent chance of afternoon showers. If the track turns muddy, it would seem to give Favorite Trick and Indian Charlie an extra advantage and dim Halory Hunter's chances.
"You can't put a dome on the track, and you can't tell God not to make it rain," Halory Hunter trainer Nick Zito said. "This game is played outdoors."
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• When: 5:27 p.m. today • Where: Churchill Downs, Louisville • Local TV: Ch. 9, 2 • Pitino fulfills dream • Notebook • Lacombe diary • The field • Neck decides Oaks • Associated Press coverage |
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