BY RICHELLE THOMPSON
The Cincinnati Enquirer
LEBANON -- The 6th Congressional District almost entirely skirts metropolitan areas, cutting a wide swath through 14 counties in mostly rural southern Ohio.
Still, the race between Democratic incumbent Ted Strickland and Republican challenger Lt. Gov. Nancy Hollister is expected to be one of the most important in the country.
That's because both parties view the race as winnable. In the past six years, the seat has flip-flopped from Democrat to Republican and back again. And each time, with vote margins as slim as 1 or 2 percentage points.
The candidates do not expect this year to be any different. Mr. Strickland, in his second term,thinks constituents will reward his service by voting him in for another two years. But the district leans slightly Republican.
Ms. Hollister's win in Tuesday's primary means there won't be a repeat race between Mr. Strickland and former U.S. Rep. Frank Cremeans. In 1994, Mr. Cremeans beat Mr. Strickland in the congressional race. Two years later, voters decided to send Mr. Strickland back to Washington.
"This district has been one of the most competitive races in the country, cycle after cycle. The voters . . . are not adverse to throwing out an incumbent," said Amy Walters, House editor of the Cook Political Report, a non-partisan watchdog group in Washington, D.C., that analyzes state and federal races.
Of the 435 House seats up for election, only about 25 are really up for grabs, said Al Tuchfarber, director of the Institute for Policy Research at the University of Cincinnati. He placed the 6th District as one of the five most-competitive seats in the country. The reason: political power.
The Democrats need to hold on to all of their incumbents so they can concentrate on making up their 11-seat deficit in the House and become the majority party. The Republicans would like to stretch that margin to solidify their position.
Special interest groups are expected to make a strong appearance in the 6th District race. National, state and local political parties also will put on a good show, and the candidates likely will repeat history, spending about $2 million total to woo the 500,000 or so voters.
Ms. Hollister depleted her campaign war chest of about $280,000 in the primary race. She expects to start raising money again within the week. Mr. Strickland said he has about $300,000.
While the 6th District is considered a swing seat, it's also largely regarded as one of the toughest areas in which to campaign. The district takes five hours to cross and is, geographically, the largest in the state -- and one of the biggest in the Midwest. It has some of the richest and poorest residents in the state, and unemployment rates range from about 3 percent in Warren County to 14 percent in Vinton or Meigs counties in Appalachia.
No single media market reaches all voters. Instead, candidates have to spread their campaign among at least five major media markets, including Cincinnati, Dayton and Columbus.
"I would say it's a nightmare for either party and both candidates," said Dan Radford, secretary - treasurer of the Cincinnati chapter of the AFL-CIO Labor Council.
The 1998 election lacks some of the national sentiments of recent years, Ms. Walters said. It's not an anti-Clinton year. Or anti-Gingrich. Instead, she said, the race "really is going to be about who runs the best campaign, who most effectively gets their message out to the voters."
