BY PAUL BARTON
Enquirer Washington Bureau
WASHINGTON -- In sports, they call it "winning ugly" -- getting past your opponents in a sloppy game by just a few points.
That's exactly what Rep. John Boehner, R-West Chester, and the rest of the House Republican leadership cannot afford to happen in next week's congressional election, a number of political experts, observers and even supporters agree.
The current leadership team will have to face re-election to their spots within the Republican Conference before the new Congress convenes in January.
"Any time you have a closely divided House, there is something at stake for the party leaders in any election," said Ronald Peters, director of the Carl Albert Congressional Studies Center at the University of Oklahoma.
The most intense speculation surrounding next week's House races concerns not whether the Republicans will retain their majority but what kind of gains they will make.
How large or how small those gains turn out to be, many believe, will affect whether the leadership team faces challenges to their positions.
On the other hand, if the GOP records a major gain in seats, it will mean the leadership will not have to worry as much about defections from some of their members on key House votes in the next Congress.
"If they are able to pad their (margin) with 15 or more seats that problem of having to cave to the hard-liners could be eliminated," said Roger H. Davidson, politics professor at the University of Maryland.
The House is now divided among 228 Republicans, 206 Democrats and one independent.
For now, the consensus seems to be that Republicans will pick up somewhere between seven and 14 seats, enough to prevent serious problems for Mr. Boehner, House Speaker Newt Gingrich, Majority Leader Dick Armey and Majority Whip Tom DeLay.
But the opinion is far from unanimous, and the results Tuesday are not expected to be perceived as spectacular.
History shows the party that opposes the president usually picks up anywhere from 30 to 36 seats during a second-term election. But now those expectations have been lowered, and many believe GOP leaders would be happy to gain around 12 seats.
"There certainly won't be the extravagant gains some Republicans hoped for a few weeks ago," said Jack Pitney, a political scientist at Claremont McKenna College who has studied the 1994 Republican Revolution in depth.
In large part that's because the Monica Lewinsky scandal has failed, polls say, to create a national wave that could carry the GOP to greater numbers.
"What you are looking at is a group of Americans who have turned off Washington," said Bruce Josten, executive vice president for governmental affairs at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.
Mr. Davidson, the University of Maryland professor, added, "I think it is unlikely that the Republicans are going to do badly enough that the leadership would be at risk."
Many consider Mr. Boehner to be especially secure.
"I think John's standing is very strong," said Dan Danner, chief lobbyist for the National Federation of Independent Business, the chief small business organization in Washington.
"Certainly from our perspective in the business community, he has been a great friend and a great ally."
But if the elections just maintain the current GOP numbers in the House or produce just a low, single-digit gain, unrest is likely. "Then it would be much more likely that you have people plotting in back rooms," said Charles Bullock, a specialist on Congress at the University of Georgia.
Many in the business community, which largely supports Republicans, warn that if the GOP sees only a five- or six-seat gain, there could be plenty of disenchantment with leadership over blowing a great opportunity.
Gary Nordlinger, a Democratic strategist, said the Republicans have "huffed and puffed and threatened to blow the White House down, and it just hasn't happened."
