BY SANDY THEIS and MICHAEL HAWTHORNE
Enquirer Columbus Bureau
COLUMBUS -- For the first time since this season's campaign commercials debuted, their importance is diminished.
"What matters now is what's on the ground," said Michael Coleman, the Democratic candidate for lieutenant governor.
With the election two days away what matters are phone banks, literature drops and door-to-door politicking. Discontent about President Clinton's troubles and the deluge of negative TV ads, coupled with complacency that accompanies a strong economy, have left leaders in both parties fearing their voters simply will stay home.
"This is a tough one because this is an election that lacks passion or anger," said Bob Bennett, chairman of the Ohio Republican Party. "Every weekend for the last couple of months I've wished that Tuesday was Election Day."
Get-out-the-vote efforts are especially important to the five Democrats running for statewide office. In each case, their Republican counterparts have out-raised and out-spent them. In each case, polls show the Democrats trailing.
"We have put together the most comprehensive voter identification and turnout campaign, probably in the history of the Ohio Democratic Party," said state Democratic Party Chairman David Leland.
Organized labor is calling its members, offering rides to the polls and walking targeted precincts with literature emphasizing what Democrats will do for working families.
Elderly voters, who often vote absentee, received a letter from U.S. Sen. John Glenn, D-Ohio, urging them to go to the polls. African-Americans, who remain the Democrats' most loyal bloc of voters, are the target of special voter outreach efforts.
Still, Republicans, who already control all branches of state government, are hoping for another sweep of the statewide offices. With the help of paid callers, the state GOP is making 1 million calls this weekend and has sent millions of direct mail pieces to households.
"We've had to triple what we've done in the past to counter what labor has been doing," Mr. Bennett said.
Mr. Bennett holds periodic conference calls with some of the big-county chairmen. During last week's call, he announced that all the GOP statewide candidates have solid leads except Hamilton County Prosecutor Joe Deters, who is running for state treasurer against Summit County Treasurer John Donofrio.
"We were talking about how we need to go out and give him a big push because nobody knows him," said Eldon Spencer, chairman of the Lake County Republican Party.
The county chairs placed a special emphasis on trumpeting Mr. Deters to their supporters. At the same time, the state Republican Party launched a TV attack critical of Mr. Donofrio.
By Friday evening, Mr. Bennett was predicting a Deters win. Still, Mr. Spencer couldn't recall seeing so many voters so turned off.
When Republican gubernatorial candidate Bob Taft took the unusual step of going door-to-door in Mr. Spencer's own neighborhood, not one voter he encountered promised to support him.
Even in his own back yard, Mr. Taft often seems unable to inspire the party faithful.
At a "Countdown to Victory" rally at Memorial Hall in Over-the-Rhine on Tuesday, Hamilton County Republican leaders made him the event's final speaker, the usual position for the person leading the statewide ticket.
After hearing the other candidates speak, about one-third of the crowd skipped Mr. Taft's address.
"That was my fault because I wanted to build up to Bob," said Mike Allen, chairman of the Hamilton County Republican Party. "I guess some people wanted to try to beat rush-hour traffic." To court Republican voters in Hamilton County, Mr. Allen said, volunteers will be walking door-to-door through hundreds of precincts and will distribute thousands of sample ballots.
"If (voters) aren't getting out in Hamilton County, it wouldn't be for a lack of effort," he said.
While Hamilton County is home to the state's most reliably Republican voters, both parties consider the northeastern corner of the state to be critical to their success.
Both Mr. Taft and Mr. Fisher have spent the bulk of their time these past two weeks in Cleveland and its suburbs. Both scheduled stops there Saturday, today and Monday.
Although the region still tends to lean Democratic, its huge size makes it vital for Republicans.
In 1990, Cuyahoga County (the home of Cleveland) supplied more Republican votes in the governor's race than either Hamilton or Franklin counties. And in 1994, it supplied more than Hamilton and Franklin counties combined.
Because Mr. Taft is a native of Cincinnati, Democrats hope that Mr. Fisher can ring up a comfortable margin in northeast Ohio to offset Mr. Taft's strength in the southwest. Mr. Fisher is a former state attorney general from Shaker Heights, a Cleveland suburb. Mr. Fisher is counting on a large turnout of black voters.
The Rev. C.J. Matthews, senior pastor at Cleveland's Mount Sinai Baptist Church, said the city's black ministers are preaching for Mr. Fisher at the behest of U.S. Rep. Louis Stokes, the first black congressman from Ohio, who is retiring at the end of this year. While the Sunday before an election is traditionally a day Democrats target to reach out to black voters, black leaders said today's effort will be unlike any before.
Mr. Stokes is visiting black churches in Cleveland, and hundreds of northeastern Ohio ministers have been asked to urge their congregations to vote for the entire Democratic ticket.
Mr. Stokes' district posted the highest turnout of any Ohio congressional district for Mr. Clinton in 1992 and 1996, and he predicted that anger over the Republican congressional investigation of Mr. Clinton will help spur African-Americans to vote.
Analysts, however, say Democrats may be overemphasizing the anger.
A recent poll by the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, a black think tank in Washington, D.C., showed that for the first time more African-Americans than whites said they were better off financially now than they were a year ago.
As a result, analysts say, more black voters could join whites who are satisfied with the economy and see no reason to show up at the polls.
Conservative Christians are among the Republicans' most loyal voters. But if they show up Tuesday, it will be for reasons not associated with Mr. Taft's candidacy, said David Zanotti, executive director of the Liberty Committee, a conservative political action committee that endorsed Ken Blackwell for governor.
He said the Taft campaign has ignored groups of influential grass-roots supporters such as his organization and the Christian Coalition.
"They didn't ask, and we didn't offer our help," said Mr. Zanotti, who led successful ballot initiatives for term limits and against casino gambling in Ohio.
On the Democratic side, labor unions are warning their members that a vote for Mr. Taft would continue Republican policies that organized labor considers "anti-worker," such as a repeal of prevailing wages on school construction projects and efforts to cut benefits to injured workers.
William Burga, president of the Ohio AFL-CIO, said voters have had a tough time picking up any differences between Mr. Fisher and Mr. Taft. At the urging of labor leaders, Mr. Fisher has been talking more about protecting workers' comp from Republican-led attacks.
"Our members respond more quickly to issues than candidates," Mr. Burga said. "We've had to remind them where the candidates stand on issues that are important to working men and women, but I think Lee Fisher's message has finally gotten through to them."
If 60 percent of union members vote and 65 percent of those voters choose Mr. Fisher, the next governor will be a Democrat, Mr. Burga said.
