Sunday, February 07, 1999
Bauer may not have shot, but will have say
BY PATRICK CROWLEY
The Cincinnati Enquirer
Gary Bauer, a Newport native and rising yet still largely unknown star of the socially conservative religious right, is running for president.
Will he win?
We're not really into handicapping, but there's little argument that Mr. Bauer is a long shot at best for the Republican nomination in the 2000 presidential race.
Will he affect the debate?
Oh, yes, very much so.
We've heard all the knocks on Mr. Bauer from the pundits. He's not “presidential.” He's never held elected office. He's too far right in the mode of conservative radio talk show host and pro-family commentator James Dobson — Mr. Bauer's political mentor — Pat Robertson and Jerry Falwell.
And now that Mr. Bauer has taken the leap from presidential “hopeful” to “candidate,” we'll certainly begin to hear more Bauer bashing out of Iowa and New Hampshire, where the other folks who want the GOP nomination are already hitting the hustings hard and trying to drum up votes, support and media coverage.
Not all of the criticism aimed at Mr. Bauer's inexperience and agenda is just so much political hot air. Like any candidate, he has some problems — or “negatives,” as the consultants call them — to overcome.
He doesn't have the name, looks, stature or experience of a Dan Quayle, Texas Gov. George W. Bush, Sen. John McCain or Bob Dole's wife, Elizabeth “Don't call me Libby” Dole. He lacks the presidential trail seasoning and familiarity of a Steve Forbes, Lamar Alexander or Mr. Buchanan.
Preachy moralist
And with an agenda that leans pretty much to the right, Mr. Bauer isn't exactly in with the “Compassionate Conservatism” crowd, that growing group of Republicans led by George W. Bush and a handful of governors and big-city mayors that — and, oh, boy, does the GOP hate to hear this — is emulating Bill Clinton by going to and staying in the middle.
“The country is going to the vital center, where Bill Clinton is and George Bush wants to go,” said John Lapp, chief of staff for U.S. Rep. Ken Lucas, a Boone County Democrat.
“It's a group that is more with the mainstream of the nation. They want welfare reform, but they don't want babies crying in the street, either.”
Mr. Bauer has a tendency, or at least a history, of being a preachy moralist, a tad dark and quite the downer.
Last May, when he came into Northern Kentucky to campaign for 4th District GOP candidate Gex “Jay” Williams, Mr. Bauer was downright scary in his assessment of our nation.
To a fire-and-brimstone crowd that contained more than a few preachers, Mr. Bauer talked of America's “virtue deficit,” of murder and mayhem in the streets. “Too many of our children will cry themselves to sleep. Too many children are without a father's arms to comfort them. Too many children are exploited by sex and drugs or sexual abuse,” he said.
Not that we want politicians telling us just what we want to hear. But take a look at the impeachment fiasco in Washington.
Focus on issues
Poll after poll shows that the American people don't condone what Bill Clinton did with “that woman.” But they sure aren't thrilled with some of the House managers, who are starting to sound like that pious bunch from The Scarlet Letter.
Americans want politicians who govern, who take on issues, who make their lives easier, better and safer. They don't want a group of moralists telling them how to live and digging into people's sex lives, even if it's the life of the president.
In announcing his presidential aspirations last week on NBC's Meet the Press, Mr. Bauer somewhat shedded the harder edge he had during his spring visit to Northern Kentucky.
He still called for an end to all abortions, a proposal that will win him points with his base of social conservatives. But Mr. Bauer also espoused a more traditional platform of a flat tax, limiting the growth of government, a beefed up national defense, military intervention — if necessary — in Kosovo and a tougher trade policy with China.
Fourth District GOP Chairman Damon Thayer counts himself among those pushing Mr. Bush, but he was impressed with Mr. Bauer's national television appearance.
“I like his ideas,” Mr. Thayer said. But like many other Republicans, particularly party leaders, he is concerned with Mr. Bauer's electability.
“The Republican Party needs a candidate and an agenda that can win the White House in 2000.”
What Mr. Bauer does have on his side, however, is timing and circumstance.
For now, there is no acknowledged front man for the social conservatives. Mr. Quayle will try, and he does have some appeal with that constituency. But he's not as identifiable with that group as, say, a Pat Buchanan.
Thus far, Mr. Buchanan has stayed out of the race, and that's not only good news for Mr. Bauer but for the Republicans in general.
The commentator and former speech writer for Richard Nixon had good runs in 1992 and 1996, but his personality and his politics drive a wedge in his own party that hurt the Republicans' chances in the last two presidential elections.
Sen. John Ashcroft, once touted as the right's presidential hopeful, is taking a powder on the race to concentrate on what could be a tough re-election campaign back in Missouri.
Ralph Reed, the former head of the Christian Coalition, is busy running, and losing, races as a Georgia-based political consultant.
Pat Robertson, the televangelist and 1988 presidential hopeful, angered conservatives when he told the Republicans to end Mr. Clinton's impeachment trial. Mr. Falwell is busy hording canned goods because of the Y2K bug.
Right wing's conscience
So Mr. Bauer appears to be the man this campaign season for the far right, which still commands an audience with the top leaders of the Republican Party.
“Gary Bauer is to the Republican Party what (Minnesota Sen.) Paul Wellstone is to the Democratic Party,” said Stu Rothenberg, the editor and publisher of a Washington political newsletter. “Each is the conscience of one element of their party.
“(Mr.) Wellstone is the traditional liberal for the Democrats. Gary Bauer is the social conservative for the Republicans.”
Mr. Bauer may not be elected president in 2000. But he'll be at the table, attracting a lot of attention for himself and his agenda.
Patrick Crowley covers Kentucky politics. His column appears Thursdays and Sundays. He can be reached at 578-5581 or by e-mail at
crowleys@cinci.infi.net.
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