Sunday, April 25, 1999
Derby tip: Don't bet on the favorite
Top pick hasn't won in 20 years
BY NEIL SCHMIDT
The Cincinnati Enquirer
Mike Battaglia — luckily for him — has a good sense of humor.
He'll need it this week, the lead-in to the Kentucky Derby.
“People hear me talk about their horse, and they cringe,” the 49-year-old Edgewood, Ky., oddsmaker said. “They say, "Oh, please don't make me the favorite.'”
When the Derby is run Sat urday in Louisville, it will mark 20 years since a favorite — either Mr. Battaglia's morning-line choice or the people's pick at post time — won the race.
In 1990, when Mr. Battaglia — one of the most beloved men in horse racing — picked Mister Frisky to win the Kentucky Derby, Unbridled trainer Carl Nafzger said, “Thank God Battaglia didn't make me the favorite.”
Unbridled won.
“Maybe it's me,” Mr. Battaglia said, laughing. “Maybe I'm the jinx.”
Though horsemen rib Mr. Battaglia, they also respect and fear the jinx. “It's alive and well,” two-time Derby-winning trainer Nick Zito said.
Jockey Mike Smith, 0-for-8 in the Derby including rides on three favorites, said, “It's the hardest race to figure, and it's the hardest race to win. That's what makes it what it is.”
Two decades ago, the handicapping was easier. In one six-year span, three horses won not only the Derby, but also the other two legs of the Triple Crown — the Preakness and
the Belmont Stakes. From 1972-79, Derby favorites won six times, finishing second in the other two races.
Mr. Battaglia, who became the Derby's handicapper in 1975, predicted three winners his first five years.
“I was thinking, "This is an easy game,'” he said. “Since then, I'm 0-for-a-career.”
The kiss of death isn't intentional. Derby races these past two decades have been perilous to predict.
No horse has been dominant enough to win the Triple Crown since 1978. No winner of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, the fall 2-year-old title race, has won the Derby the next spring. And since 1991, no Derby winner was a winner in his last prep race.
Counting entries, 25 horses have gone off as post-time favorites the past 19 years. Collapses have been both quiet and colossal.
There's jockey Pat Day pulling up Demons Begone in 1987, both covered in blood. Then super-hyped Arazi, fading, fading, fading in '92. And Snow Chief in '86 and Hansel in '97, both eventual 3-year-olds of the year, running career-worst races at the wrong time.
There's Unbridled's Song in '96; Pulpit, morning-line favorite in '97; Devil's Bag, the projected favorite in '84; and A.P. Indy, second choice in '92; all either scratched or slowed by injuries.
And then there's the Holy Bull drugging controversy of '94. More on that later.
“I'm in the midst of the 20-year (drought), and I keep thinking the law of averages is going to catch up,” said Mr. Day, who had mounts on three favorites in that time. “It just testifies how difficult that race is.”
In sizing up this dry spell, the overriding factor is the uniqueness of Derby Day.
“There's a lot of factors that come into play,” said Frankie Brothers, who trained post-time favorite Hansel in 1991 and Pulpit in '97. “Those horses never face anything like that before or after. It's a once-in-a-lifetime race.”
A breakdown of factors:
• The unknown. With horses just beginning to mature as 3-year-olds, they meet a multitude of challenges at Churchill Downs.
It's the first 11/4-mile race they'll run, a distance too long for some thoroughbreds. It's the first time most will carry 126 pounds. It's the first time they face a field usually twice as large as they're used to.
“You're in uncharted waters,” said D. Wayne Lukas, who has trained three Derby winners. “You have to speculate what will happen that last quarter-mile.”
The noisy crowd — usually 140,000 strong — is roughly 10 times the size and volume to which these horses are accustomed. Some will be spooked.
• Apples to oranges. Since horses arrive at the Derby from disparate directions, there's often little basis for comparison. The three major winter prep sites are Florida, California and New York, so top contenders often arrive unproven.
“Since they're from all over, it's hard to get a line on them,” Mr. Brothers said. “The press or handicappers pick up horses they kind of like, and that ends up being the favorites.”
“It's all speculation,” Mr. Lukas said.
• False favorites. Favorites are built on reputations, which are often molded in the 2-year-old season.
Unbridled's Song (the 1995 Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner), Timber Country (winner in '94), Arazi ('91) and Chief's Crown ('84) all went off the next spring as Derby favorites, only to fail. Additionally, Rockhill Native was 2-year-old champ in 1979, as was Easy Goer in '88, both becoming Derby favorites who also faltered.
“A good 2-year-old season doesn't equate with a good 3-year-old season,” Mr. Lukas said.
Arazi was the most celebrated dud. He came to Louisville in 1992 off a single prep race in France, and fans at Churchill bet a record $1,460,470 on him to win. But the favorite of favorites, who had been likened to Secretariat, faded to finish eighth.
Some peak too early. Of Timber Country, Mr. Day said, “He hadn't woke up and gotten competitive as he had late in his 2-year-old season. He was lackadaisical (at the Derby). He just didn't care.”
Fans also influence the odds. Most of the money bet on Derby Day comes from casual bettors, not hard-core horseplayers.
When fillies run, they're a popular bet. In 1984, the coupled entry (one bet is spread over two horses) of fillies Althea and Life's Magic was bet down to the post-time favorite; the more accomplished Swale won easily. Another filly, Serena's Song, became the 1995 favorite but finished 16th.
“As people walk through the crowd on Saturday afternoon, they might say, "Who do you like? I like Pat Day,'” Mr. Day said. “They don't even know what I'm riding. Somebody else says, "I like this horse because my mother's name was this.' They bet by color, favorite name, and every other reason.”
• Pressure. Churchill credentials an average of 2,100 media for each Derby. “Half that total are around the favorite's barn all week,” Mr. Zito said. “The favorite gets attention and tension. Horses pick up vibes.”
• The trip. Track conditions and jockeys' decisions are the great intangibles.
“You have to get away well, you have to be placed in the right spot. The pace has to be perfect,” Mr. Smith said. A bump or nudge can mean millions.
Wet tracks helped mudder Sunday Silence surprise Easy Goer in 1989 and sank Holy Bull in '94.
Post position also can kill. Only five horses have ever won from the auxiliary gate (posts 15-20), helping doom Timber Country (post 15), Private Terms (16), Arazi (17), Marfa (18) and Unbridled's Song (19).
• Bad luck and unsolved mysteries. The three biggest what-if favorites were Demons Begone, Holy Bull and Unbridled's Song.
Demons Begone stumbled out of the gate, and after a half-mile, Mr. Day had to pull him up for bleeding. Mr. Day believes the horse's exertion in preventing a fall caused a blood vessel in his lungs to burst.
Unbridled's Song developed a crack in his hoof just before the Derby, which necessitated wearing clunky shoes. He struggled to finish fifth. “It was like wearing combat boots and trying to run a foot race,” Mr. Smith said.
Holy Bull remains the biggest mystery. Trainer Jimmy Croll was quoted in 1997 as saying, “They got to my horse. ... I know more than ever that Holy Bull was drugged.”
Mr. Croll didn't say who “they” were. But he said a man hanging around his barn the week before the 1994 Derby was later questioned in a drug investigation involving the use of Halcion, a sedative.
Holy Bull, in the midst of his Horse of the Year campaign, finished just 12th in the Derby, beaten by 18 lengths. Unfortunately, the stewards didn't test him after the race.
Ultimately, the Derby doesn't determine greatness.
Several horses are one-day wonders; from 1982-96, eight of the 15 Derby winners didn't even become the champion 3-year-old that year. In that span, four losing favorites — Snow Chief, Hansel, Prairie Bayou and Holy Bull — rebounded to win 3-year-old honors.
Those who fear Mr. Battaglia's curse are also mindful it will eventually end.
“I'd take the Derby favorite every year and wouldn't worry about it,” Mr. Brothers said. “Jinx or not, it's a good position to be in.”
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