Thursday, May 06, 1999
Mayor 2001: The race is on
BY HOWARD WILKINSON
The Cincinnati Enquirer
Thirty months from now, somebody is going to become the first directly elected mayor Cincinnati has had since Calvin Coolidge was president. But that's not long enough to keep people in Cincinnati political circles from speculating Wednesday about who might run and win the first mayoral election — and what he or she might have to do to get there.
On Tuesday, only 18 percent of Cincinnati's registered voters showed up at the polls, but 53 percent of them voted for Issue 4, the charter amendment that will set up a direct election of a mayor for a four-year term and greatly enhanced powers. On Issue 4, 20,697 voted in favor and 18,420 were opposed.
There is a wide open field:
• The present mayor, Democrat Roxanne Qualls, has been the top vote-getter in the last three council elections. The term limits law prevents her from running again this year, but in 2001 she could come back and make a run for the mayor's office.
• There are current council members, particularly Democrat Todd Portune and Republicans Phil Heimlich and Charlie Winburn. One of them could well be the top vote-getter, and thus mayor, in this year's council election. The mayor would have a leg up on the competition when direct election starts in 2001.
Mr. Portune ran second in 1997; Mr. Winburn was top Republican vote-getter. Mr. Heimlich has raised large sums of money but ran sixth in 1997.
• It could be someone recently off stage, such as former Mayor Dwight Tillery, who could start with a base of support among African-American leaders. Or someone such as TV news anchor and former Mayor Charlie Luken, who is said to be considering a run for council this year.
• Finally, it could be someone who is on no one's short list in 1999, lured by an office with considerably more power and a salary near $100,000 a year. It could be someone with a fairly well-known name from a venue other than politics, such as sports, entertainment or business.
“It could end up being somebody we're not thinking of at all,” said H.C. “Buck” Niehoff, chairman of the Hamilton County Republican Party and an enthusiastic backer of Issue 4.
Council a sideshow?
Under Issue 4, candidates for mayor will first run in a September nonpartisan primary. The top two finishers in that race will face each other in the fall.
Passage of Issue 4 will set up a mayoral election that people on both sides of the issue agree will draw huge amounts of money to the mayor's race.
Opponents argued that the mayoral race would diminish interest in the council race, making it harder for the political parties to recruit candidates to run in the biennial council races.
Tim Burke, co-chairman of the Hamilton County Democratic Party, said he thinks council races will become, in part, training grounds for future mayoral candidates.
“If anybody thinks that council is going to be a sideshow, they're wrong,” Mr. Burke said. “Clearly, a lot of candidates are going to see getting elected to council as a stepping stone to becoming mayor.”
Both party chairmen agree that this year's council race — run under the system Cincinnati has had since 1987, in which the top vote-getter becomes mayor — takes on added significance because it could give the winner an advantage in the 2001 mayoral race.
Candidates who have been top vote-getter under the present system have been the ones who have been able to put together widespread support that cuts across racial lines, party lines, geographical boundaries and interest group support.
Most of the city's political observers think the same will be true under the new direct election system. Successful candidates will be the ones whose support is not limited to one group or another, whether it be labor or business, Republican or Democrat.
Broad appeal
Much of the money that has fueled city council campaigns in recent years has come from the business community, and that is likely to be the case when Cincinnati's mayor is elected two years from now.
But there is general agreement that business interests in Cincinnati will have to back a candidate who can appeal to a wide range of voters — whites, African-Americans, labor, women and others.
“There will undoubtedly be some business people who will want some dictator in there,” said John Williams, president of the Greater Cincinnati Chamber of Commerce. “But most people in the business community now realize that is not going to fly. We have to have somebody in that office who can build a consensus throughout this community.”
All mayors since 1987 have been Democrats. The race for council is officially nonpartisan, but political parties endorse candidates.
Dan Radford, executive secretary-treasurer of the Cincinnati AFL-CIO Labor Council, said organized labor won't be able to match the business community in raising money, but has the advantage of being able to offer a mayoral candidate a “strong grass-roots organization. That's what we do best.”
“Nobody is going to be able to buy this office,” Mr. Radford said of the new mayor's office. “The person who wins this is the one who works the hardest. That means organizing from the ground up.”
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