Monday, May 17, 1999
NBA draft lesson: Stay in school
BY MIKE DeCOURCY
The Cincinnati Enquirer
When he left California's Fontana High in 1996, Corey Benjamin was a McDonald's All-American and the No.4-rated basketball player in his class.
When he left Oregon State after two seasons, he was the 28th pick in the NBA Draft. This year, his first with the Chicago Bulls, he was the No.12 scorer on the NBA's 27th-best team.
Benjamin considers this progress.
“I feel I made the best decision of my life. The competition is better and I'm out here working every day.”
He may not feel the same if he isn't working in the NBA in a few years — and the odds are greater he'll be gone than other players chosen in promiximity to Benjamin, such as Sam Jacobson of the Los An geles Lakers or Felipe Lopez of the Vancouver Grizzlies. Each played four years in college.
Pro teams will not stop spending lottery-level draft picks on wildly talented underclassmen such as Allen Iverson, Stephon Marbury and Antonio McDyess. They did not need four college seasons to succeed in the NBA.
But teams filling the rest of their draft choices with four- year college players, earn greater returns.
Jamaal Magliore, who played center for UK this past season, likely will be chosen 20th or lower in the 1999 draft. These are some of the trends he will need to overcome:
• More than 34 percent of underclassmen drafted after the top 10 were cut in their first training camps, compared to 21 percent of drafted se niors.
• Of four first-round draft choices waived out of the league since 1996, three left college with eligibility remaining.
• Eight underclassmen who made the NBA after being drafted outside the top 10 in 1998 played a combined 1,837 minutes this season — 279 more than 14th pick Michael Dickerson played for the Houston Rockets. Former Kentucky center Nazr Mohammed averaged less than five minutes in 26 games.
• Only five of 35 underclassmen drafted after the top 10 in the past four years have had even one double-figure scoring season. None started as a rookie, and five became starters by this past season. Twelve seniors chosen beyond the top 10 started as rookies, including three second-round picks.
It appears an educated workforce is more productive — even if the job is playing basketball.
“The elite guys are going to go into the top 10: Baron Davis, Elton Brand, Steve Francis,” said Boston Celtics General Manager Chris Wallace. “Usually, when underclassmen come out and they don't go that high, there's a problem. There's a hole in their game or some character issues, and it pushes them back. And it's something that possibly could have been worked out if they stayed around college a little while longer.”
The 1999 deadline for college underclassmen to declare for the draft passed today at 12:01 a.m. Davis, Brand and Francis previously announced they would head to the NBA and each will go among the top 10 picks.
For center Leon Smith of Chicago's Martin Luther King High, power forward Deeandre Hulett of California's College of the Sequoias and small forward Albert White of Missouri, the future is less certain.
There may be teams willing to develop their skills, as Portland has done since choosing 6-foot-11 South Carolina prep star Jermaine O'Neal with the 17th overall selection in 1996. He has scored 535 points in three seasons.
Not all teams recognize or acknowledge the value of selecting seniors deeper in the draft. The league's talent-worshipping culture is resistant to change. But teams that value experience have benefited.
Houston used an all-rookie backcourt in Cuttino Mobley and Dickerson this year and it got similar production two years ago from rookie point guard Matt Maloney. Orlando employed both center Michael Doleac and forward Matt Harpring in its primary rotation this season.
Cleveland rebuilt its team a year ago by adding four-year college products Derek Anderson of Kentucky, Brevin Knight and Cedric Henderson.
“They're very good, for starters, and they're all smart guys. The game came a little easier to them,” said Cleveland General Manager Wayne Embry. “Naturally, a player that's played four years in college, has been coached for four years, is a more complete player.”
Teams choosing underclassmen deep in the draft are betting comparatively small money in the hope of gaining a huge return, such as slapping a few chips on a roulette number. The thing is, the roulette wheel pays off sometimes. It's not working in the NBA.
Since 1995, four-year products such as Michael Finley (5,254 points, 17.1 career scoring average), Theo Ratliff (2,149, 7.6), Alan Henderson (2,162, 10.0) and Bobby Jackson (1,143, 9.7) flourished after being chosen lower than 15th. By comparison, the most productive underclassmen chosen 15th or lower have been part-time players such as Denver guard Cory Alexander (1,494 points, 6.3) and New Jersey guard Chris Carr (1,288, 6.2).
“I think if you look at the adjustment of the guys who do stay, it seems to argue that experience matters,” said Gold en State Warriors coach P.J. Carlesimo. “You're betting on the "come' with the younger guys. There's no question. But that's why they're attractive to people.”
Carlesimo was coaching the Portland Trail Blazers when they selected O'Neal, who plays power forward and has backed up Xavier product Brian Grant, Rasheed Wallace, Cliff Robinson and Stacey Augmon, among others.
“The jury's still out on him, frankly,” Carlesimo said. “I still think he can be a good player. The biggest problem for Jermaine has been the people he's played behind. It's hard to find time for a kid like that.”
Widely acknowledged as the top prep prospect in his senior year (1994) Lopez might have been a first-round choice if he'd gone directly from New York's Rice High to the NBA. He struggled through his first two seasons at St.John's and was considered a bust until his career was rescued by coach Fran Fraschilla.
The 24th pick in last June's draft, Lopez averaged 9.3 points as a rookie with the Vancouver Grizzlies and scored nearly as many points in his first year as O'Neal has in three.
“Some experiences he had in college were negative, but he benefited having gone through that stuff,” said Larry Riley, Vancouver's director of player personnel. “Felipe went through an absolutely horrible season for us in terms of wins and losses. The guy was able to look at everything and keep it in perspective and keep working.”
Like New Mexico guard Lamont Long and Georgia Tech guard Dion Glover, Magliore plans not to sign with an agent and will protect his college eligibility. He will attend the league's pre-draft camp in Chicago and attempt to make an impression on scouts and general managers. He may pull his name from the draft list if he feels he will not be selected high enough.
Although being a first-round pick would guarantee a three-year contract worth more than $1 million, it would not guarantee success.
“The further back you go in the first round, the less likely you're going to play,” said the Celtics' Wallace. “With the top 10 or 12 teams, there's a lot of pressure to get homecourt advantage in the playoffs. Those coaches ... will forsake upside and talent for reliability.
“If you don't play the first few years, it's impossible to amass the numbers you're going to need to impress the rest of the league and get that second contract. It's not using all your options to the full disposal. If those guys stayed in school longer, they could make quantum leaps. And if they don't, in all probability they wouldn't be picked lower. They're playing with the house's money.”
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