Monday, June 21, 1999

Summer: Wet 'n' wild or dry 'n' mild

---

Season arrives with variety of prognostications

BY WALT SCHAEFER
The Cincinnati Enquirer

Greg Webster gets an eyeful from his nephew, Travis Webster, while the two enjoyed a warm-weather romp at Devou Park on Sunday. (Thomas E. Whitte photo) | ZOOM |

        From satellite sensors to computers and pig spleens, the art of long-range weather forecasting remains just that, an art, fraught with uncertainties and contradictions.

        Temperatures will soar and fall more than normal this summer, according to the National Weather Service in Wilmington, Ohio.

        The wizard of weather prediction — The Old Farmer's Almanac — says flooding is possible during the dog days of August when hot and dry, not wet and wild, is the norm.

        However, the almanac reports, a prediction using a pig spleen calls for a hot, dry summer. Such a prognostication however, appears worthy of mention in Cincinnati — once dubbed Porkopolis and home to the Flying Pig Marathon.

        Summer in Cincinnati begins at 3:49 p.m. today. In the northern hemisphere, the season is defined as the period between the summer solstice — the year's longest day (either June 21 or 22) — and the autumnal equinox, when day and night are equal in length — Sept. 23.

        John Center, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service, said early June is often a herald of the season to come. “We have a had a period where we were very, very hot ... and dry and, lately one below the norm — very cool with some much-needed rain,” Mr. Center said.

        That is likely to continue through the season, he added.

        Meteorologists look at variables from airstreams to ocean temperatures to weather history to come up with their best long-range guess, he said.

        “They see above normal precipitation and below normal temperatures for the period. But, this is not to say we'll get out of those hot periods of above 90” degrees, he added.

        For the short range, sunshine should prevail throughout this week, the only interruption being possible stray thunderstorms on Friday. Today will be sunny with a high of 84 then partly to mostly sunny on Tuesday through Thursday with highs between 84 and 88 and lows in the mid-60s.

        Friday should be just as

        warm, with a high of 88, but with increasing clouds and a possible thunderstorm or two, AccuWeather meteorologist Kerry Schwindenhammer said Sunday.

        Turning to the Old Farmer's Almanac — including “How to Predict the Weather Using a Pig Spleen” — the prediction resembles that of the meteorologists.

        For the Greater Ohio Valley:

        • “June will bring alternating warm and cool periods, with the first hot weather in mid-month.” Sounds right on, so far.

        • “July and August will be a bit cooler than normal. Rainfall will be near normal, with heavy rain in August bringing flooding to parts of the region. Hottest temperatures will occur in mid-July and mid-August. September will start warm and turn cool”

        As for forecasting from a pig spleen, Saskatchewan pig farmer Gus Wickstrom tells Almanac writer Christina Cherneskey:

        “Divide (a pig) spleen into six areas, each representing a month. The top of the spleen (closest to the pig's head) shows the current month. The bottom indicates the end of the upcoming six-month period.”

        Mr. Wickstrom says the parts indicate changes in weather; pronounced bulges, inclement weather. A very thick area usually indicates a cold spell. This year's spleen predicts a “dry ... hot summer on the way.”

        For the record, the National Weather Service reports: Normals for June are a high of 84, a low of 63 and 3.84 inches of rain. July highs average 86, lows 65 and rain 4.24 inches. In August, normal highs are 84 with lows 62 and 3.35 inches of rain.

       

---

Summer: Wet 'n' wild or dry 'n' mild
In the shadow of a mine
Mining firm awaits zoning verdict
Ross therapist aiding Albanians
Cintas' Farmer on Forbes list
The world's billionaires
Aiming a lens at autism
Newport makes way for World Peace Bell
Rescuer braves fire
Budget cuts ax truancy court funds
Forest Park seeks retail
Group wants wider school board search
Mason plans party for 4th
Miss Ky. 'went for broke' to win crown
Road to judgeship took a few turns
Village hall has look of town square
City support lands Westwood new, rare single-family homes
HMOs lose third of appeals
Missing girl's 10th birthday being marked
GET TO IT
TRISTATE DIGEST