Sunday, July 04, 1999
Did founders imagine money would matter?
BY HOWARD WILKINSON
The Cincinnati Enquirer
Those Founding Fathers whose revolutionary idea we celebrate today by scaring the neighbor's dog with bottle rockets and turning hamburger meat into charred lumps of carbon probably had some kind of idea of how they wanted American democracy to turn out.
Foresight was a strong suit for many of those gentlemen, but it is hard to imagine they could have predicted what the political process would look like at the end of the 20th century.
They might have been surprised to learn that choosing a chief executive for the nation they founded had become a contest less about ideas than about money.
Sixteen months from now, there will be another presidential election.
That is a long time in politics, plenty of time for candidates of both parties to debate the issues, make their cases and win their parties' nominations for president.
But it seems it may be too late for all that.
George W. Bush, the Texas governor and probable favorite for the GOP presidential nomination, is coming to Cincinnati 18 days from now for a campaign fund-raising event.
And a big one it is, too. Between the Texas governor's own considerable Cincinnati connections and the close relationships his father had with various Cincinnati high-rollers, the Bush campaign could walk away from an afternoon event in Cincinnati with anywhere from $500,000 to $1million.
But it's chump change compared to what Mr. Bush has raised so far. Maybe enough to fill the tanks on the campaign jetliner a couple of times.
June 30 was the end of the second quarter of 1999 fund-raising; reports on what the presidential contenders have raised so far are due to the Federal Elections Commission July 15.
But the Bush campaign couldn't wait to let everyone know that it had already raised $36 million, a presidential-campaign record. The 11 other Republicans actively campaigning for the GOP nomination could combine the money they have raised so far and the total would still fall far short of what the Bush campaign has been able to raise.
With this kind of money in the bank, the Bush campaign won't find it necessary to take federal matching funds, and therefore won't have to abide by the federal spending limit imposed in the GOP presidential primaries.
Only one other GOP presidential candidate is likely to be able to do this — Steve Forbes, the Richie Rich of American presidential politics. Mr. Forbes is able to spend his own money — four years ago, he poured about $35 million of his personal fortune down the drain trying to beat Bob Dole, and he didn't bat an eye. He missed the funds about as much as the rest of us would miss a five-spot if we dropped it in a Salvation Army kettle.
There is every reason to believe that Mr. Forbes is ready, willing and able to throw good money after bad this time around.
Clearly, the Republican money establishment has decided the party can forego a messy, unpleasant primary season next spring.
By the time the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary roll around next February, that 12-candidate field on the Republican side will have dwindled to a precious few. A non-binding straw poll of Iowa Republicans next month could cut the field in half. The poll will be one of those tea leaves the money people like to read, and candidates who flop in it will see their already meager fund raising dwindle to nothing.
By the time Republican voters actually cast ballots in a primary election that means somethingonly three, maybe four, candidates will have made the cut.
This is not unnatural; every presidential campaign sees the wheat separated from the chaff. It would be nice, though, if the separating would be done by ideas instead of dollars.
Howard Wilkinson's column runs Sundays. Call him at 768-8388 or e-mail hwilkinson@enquirer.com
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