Friday, July 09, 1999
City crime rate drops 13% but experts restrain cheers
BY TANYA BRICKING
The Cincinnati Enquirer
Crime in almost all Cincinnati neighborhoods fell in the first five months of this year, continuing a trend the city has seen since 1991.
According to new crime statistics from Cincinnati police, the city's most serious crimes against people and property dropped by 13 percent from January through May, compared with the same period last year.
Of the city's 53 neighborhoods, Mount Lookout, O'Bryonville and North Avondale saw the most significant dips in crime. Only nine neighborhoods had increases.
“The chief will tell you the COP (Community Oriented Po licing) philosophy is working,” said police Spc. Mike Neumann, who analyzes statistics. “DARE will tell you it's the DARE (Drug Abuse Resistance Education) program. Somebody in labor will tell you it's because of the economy.”
Local numbers mirror a nationwide trend of decreasing crime for the last seven years. But criminal justice experts are wary of proclaiming victory.
“We wouldn't be celebrating low crime levels now if it weren't for the high crime levels seven years ago,” said James Alan Fox, a nationally known researcher just named a Lipman Family professor at the College of Criminal Justice at Northeastern University in Boston. “Everything's relative.”
When nationwide crime data is analyzed by age groups, there's reason for concern, he said. Most crimes are committed by people ages 18-22. Based on demographics alone, youth crime could begin to increase in the next few years as the teen population rises, he said.
He and other academics are
cautious of crediting things such as a robust economy for the decrease in crime.
“It may very well be that we had an inflated level of crime in the 1980s, and now it's getting back to normal,” said Lawrence Travis, a criminal justice professor at the University of Cincinnati.
For Kenneth Jones, a captain in Cincinnati's District 2, the latest statistics bring a better feeling than those a decade ago, when crime kept going up.
Each district captain uses monthly and annual crime statistics to figure out where best to place bike and street patrols and special task forces.
In Hartwell, one of the few neighborhoods that saw an increase in serious crime, burglary, larceny and auto theft jumped by 46 percent in the first five months of this year from the same period last year.
The change is noticeable, said Donna Kamp, president of the Hartwell Improvement Association.
“You can't have anything hardly out in your yard anymore because it's going to be gone or destroyed,” she said.
Overall serious crime rose in Hartwell by 35 percent — the highest percentage in any city neighborhood, and it has neighbors concerned even over little things such as broken flower pots and stolen lawn chairs.
Capt. Jones said seemingly minor complaints, such as abandoned cars parked in front of homes, are the most frequent calls and the quality-of-life issues that can be addressed to keep bigger crimes from happening.
The moral of the story, Mr. Travis said, is to be glad that crime is down, but don't read too much into it.
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