Friday, July 09, 1999
Study: Ohio in 25-year decline
But state now 'poised for takeoff'
BY PAUL BARTON
Enquirer Washington Bureau
WASHINGTON — Over the past quarter-century, Ohioans have become poorer and fewer in number relative to the rest of America, a study released Thursday shows.
And when they gather at the dinner table, more of them are coming off a day's work.
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OHIO TRENDS
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• Ohio's share of U.S. population: Down from 5.24 percent in 1970 to 4.18 percent in 1997.
• Ohio's share of people employed nationwide: Down from 5.22 percent in 1975 to 4.46 percent in 1995.
• Ratio of people employed in Ohio to overall state population: Increased from 37.2 percent in 1975 to 48.1 percent in 1995.
• Ohio per-capita income related to national per-capita income: Decreased from 100.68 percent in 1977 to 96.08 percent in 1996.
• Ohio's share of federal tax burden: Decreased from 5.02 percent in 1997 to 3.97 percent in 1997.
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Those are among the findings of a comprehensive analysis of economic and demographic trends for 18 Northeastern and Midwestern states done by the Northeast-Midwest Institute, a nonprofit research organization that specializes in issues relating to the two regions.
In some cases, the data went back to 1970.
While the trends, for the most part, have not been pleasant, researchers and others say the state's future looks brighter.
In the 1970s and 1980s, “Ohio went through some very tough times,” said Andrew Doehrel, president of the Ohio Chamber of Commerce.
Now, he said, “what you are beginning to see is the resurrection of Ohio.”
Paula Duggan, author of the study, said she also believes many Midwestern states have now improved their economic prospects and “are poised for takeoff.”
But the institute's study paints a picture of an Ohio that has lost ground in recent decades compared to the rest of the country.
For instance, from 1970 to 1997, the state's population increased from 10.6 million to 11.2 million, a 5 percent jump that was far less than the 31.6 percent increase experienced by the nation as a whole.
In one key population group, those between birth and 18, the state experienced a 24 percent decrease, to 2.97 million.
Overall, Ohio ranked 44th in population growth from 1970 to 1997, 46th in growth of its youth population and 33rd in growth of its elderly.
From 1975 to 1995, the number of people employed in Ohio grew by 30 percent, compared to a national growth rate of 52 percent.
But the reason Ohio was able to show gains in total employment, even with a declining population, is that more of the population was going to work.
The employment-to-population ratio increased from 37.1 percent in 1975 to 48.1 percent in 1995.
Researchers said that figure reflects the increasing numbers of mothers and teen-agers who went to work, either because they were attracted by jobs or because they were forced to help maintain family finances.
More of the labor force was shifting away from manufacturing toward service-sector jobs during the period.
Manufacturing employment in the state dropped by 12 percent from 1975 to 1995, while service-sector employment doubled.
The shift away from manufacturing jobs contributed to an increase in wage inequality — the ratio of the top 10 percent of Ohio workers' earnings compared to the bottom 10 percent — from 1970 to 1990.
Ohio went from 40th worst in wage inequality to 26th worst over those years.
“I think the movement from manufacturing to services is certainly part of the story,” said Lucia Dunn, economist and expert on wages at Ohio State University. “We were a big manufacturing state. We had a very high union pay scale.”
Ohio's economic output, relative to the rest of the rest of the country, also decreased.
The state's share of gross state product — the value of the economic goods and services of all the states, an indicator similar to the national gross domestic product — decreased from 4.97 percent in 1977 to 4.02 percent in 1996.
Mr. Doehrel, commenting on the population figures, said that as the old “rust belt” economy in Ohio lost jobs, many families picked up and moved out of state.
With improving economic times now, he said, “hopefully we are hitting the bottom of that (population) slide and will start reattracting people.”
Along with slower population growth, the Northeast-Midwest study says, Ohio's share of the nation's personal income also declined, falling from 4.94 percent in 1977 to 4.04 percent in 1996.
Per-capita personal income for the same period declined from close to 101 percent of the national average to 96.08 percent.
Considering the time frame of the study, Mr. Doehrel, the state chamber of commerce president, said he was not discouraged.
“Ohio has done all the right things to reposition itself,” he said.
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