Sunday, September 05, 1999
Riverfest crowd guess pure fantasy
500,000 just traditional, has nice ring
BY TIM BONFIELD
The Cincinnati Enquirer
Nothing stops Cincinnati's annual Riverfest celebration from drawing 500,000 people.
Every year, the advance stories come out in newspapers, radio and television that the big fireworks event is “expected” to draw 500,000 people. Every year, no matter what, the crowd reaches an “estimated” 500,000 people.
It's never 600,000 people on a good year, nor 400,000 on a bad year. Since 1993, the fireworks show has proven to be a remarkably stable event.
It rained in 1993. Crowd estimate: 500,000.
Alcohol sales were banned in 1994. Crowd estimate: 500,000.
In 1995, construction for the Tall Stacks event eliminated viewing space normally oc cupied by 10,000 people. Crowd estimate: 500,000.
Nothing bad happened to chase people away in 1996. Crowd estimate: 500,000.
In 1997, Cincinnati police refused to make a crowd estimate, citing a lawsuit filed against Washington, D.C., police over disputed crowd estimates of the Million Man March in 1995. Promoters' and the media's crowd estimate for Riverfest: 500,000.
The temperature hit a miserably humid 94 degrees in 1998. Early crowds were noticeably thin. But promoters and police agreed that crowds surged when the sun went down. By fireworks time, the crowd estimate was ... 500,000.
The truth is nobody directly counts or attempts a scientific crowd estimate for Riverfest.
“We got away from that after the Million Man March fiasco,” said Lt. Paul Humphries, of the Cincinnati Police event planning unit.
The crowd estimates that are used come from the event promoters and from the media repeating past estimates.
“The police used to give estimates, but they don't do that anymore. We don't do any counting,” said Joel Barnhill, an event coordinator with Clear Channel Events, which has organized Riverfest for the past three years.
A precise count is impossible. There are cooler inspection checkpoints, but no turnstiles along the riverfront. Besides, many thousands watch from buildings and parks with river views.
But there is an accepted way to estimate a crowd. You measure the event space, then take aerial photographs, then lay a properly scaled grid over the photos to show the people in 10-foot-by-10-foot squares.
Then you count the people in one typical-looking square and multiply that figure by all the squares in the event grid.
The time that photos are taken makes a big difference. The Riverfest crowd builds all day, then surges in the last two hours.
“The sponsors,” Mr. Barnhill said, “if they know the event at all, have a good idea of the crowd size. The vendors have enough years of experience they know what to expect.”
Still, there is no question that several hundred thousand show up every year to watch the fireworks. And, yes, the crowds vary from year to year, Lt. Humphries said.
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