Sunday, October 03, 1999
GREATER CINCINNATI 100
Signs of softening economy showing
BY JOHN ECKBERG
The Cincinnati Enquirer
Job and revenue trends from the Greater Cincinnati 100 list appear to be a pair of economic skid marks.
A slowdown apparently has begun for those on the list, a signal that a decade of rising sales and an expanding work force has come to a close:
• From a high of 66,084 people employed by companies on the list in 1997, the employment base has dipped to 63,810.
• Sales, too, have slowed, from $12.1 billion in 1997 to $12.2 billion in 1998 — a scant 1.2 percent year-to-year increase.
• The 1998 sales volume is still twice the size of 1983 sales — $6 billion. But considering inflation and the ever-upward trend of previous years, it might indicate that at least a year-to-year softening has started.
Melanie Blackwell, associate professor of economics at Xavier University, cautioned that sweeping conclusions about broad economic trends are risky when drawn from a fluctuating list such as the Greater Cincinnati 100.
“If you are pulling out of a recession ... you'll see manufacturers increase sales and produc tion,” Ms. Blackwell said. “Pulling out of a recession may explain the substantial growth.
“But manufacturing will be quiet during the recession.”
And the job losses reflected by the list might not be a job loss at all. Rather, she said, it could mean that more high-technology companies are on the list, and those companies generally have a lower employment base.
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