Friday, January 21, 2000
Quake could hit Midwest in 15 years
BY PAMELA BROGAN
Gannett News Service
WASHINGTON — An earthquake powerful enough to flatten St. Louis or Memphis, break levees on the Mississippi River and disrupt the nation's railroad system and natural gas supplies is certain to hit the Midwest. The only question, scientists say, is when.
The New Madrid seismic zone, which stretches through Arkansas, Missouri, Tennessee, Mississippi, Kentucky, Illinois and Indiana, is such a hotbed of activity that some scientists say an earthquake could strike in the next 10 to 15 years. More than 200 small earthquakes oc cur in the area annually.
“It wouldn't surprise me if we had a quake with a magnitude of 6 within the next 10 years,” said Robert Hermann, professor of geophysics at St. Louis University in Missouri. “We cannot predict how big and how often earthquakes occur, but it's better to be very prudent.”
Arch Johnston, director of the Center of Earthquake Research and Information at the University of Memphis, agrees the New Madrid zone could be ground zero for the next “Big One.”
“The public should be aware that this is an active earthquake zone, capable of producing big earthquakes,” Mr. Johnston said.
Mr. Johnston predicted in 1985 there was a 40 percent to 63 percent chance the region could have an earthquake measur ing 6.0 in the next 15 years.
Mr. Johnston's research still is highly regarded by the scientific community, although he admits earthquake forecasting is an imprecise science.
“We have more information today than we had in 1985, but I'd still stick with that forecast. Predicting earthquakes is a lot like predicting the weather,” Mr. Johnston said.
James Witt, director of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, agreed the earthquake threat in New Madrid is serious.
There are “all kinds of predictions, but Memphis could be leveled, depending upon where it hits,” warned Mr. Witt, who said the federal government has an emergency response plan in effect in the event of a quake.
Mr. Witt said he was most concerned about the large number of old buildings in the region, including schools and hospitals, that do not meet seismic codes and have not been retrofitted.
“That's not good,” Mr. Witt said. “If people could see what I saw at Northridge (California), they would spend a little bit now and save three times the costs later. Most of the injuries occurred because of damaged buildings.”
Scientists rank the New Madrid region fourth among active earthquake zones in the United States behind Alaska, California and the Pacific Northwest.
New Madrid, Mo., was ground zero in 1811 and 1812 for three of the largest earthquakes in the nation's history that scientists estimate measured up to magnitude 7.9.
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