Wednesday, January 26, 2000
Voters tired of the trivial
Candidates are likely to meet skeptism in Ohio
BY HOWARD WILKINSON
The Cincinnati Enquirer
The road to the White House, which so far has played out on snowy Iowa and New Hampshire street corners and in cable news debates, will soon run through the Stag Barber Shop in Avondale.
And when, in an Ohio presidential primary that is only 41 days away, the debate over who will be the next president reaches Lester Hankerson's storefront barber shop on Bur net Avenue and a thousand other Ohio places where voters gather, it will find a skeptical crowd.
“I suppose what we will hear are politicians telling us what they think we want to hear,” said Richard Johnson of College Hill, a retired GE Aircraft Engines worker, as he settled into Mr. Hankerson's chair for his regular cut.
“Just rhetoric; promises that can't be kept,” Mr. Johnson said. “There is hardly anything more important than picking a president. But the politicians have trivialized it.”
When the candidates for president reach Ohio, both Democrats and Republicans, they are likely to find an electorate that is familiar with the field but not yet tuned into the daily back-and-forth of the candidates.
“All I have heard so far is them arguing about taxes,” said Mr. Hankerson, who has been cutting hair in his Burnet Avenue shop for 32 years. “Talk to me about something else. We all pay taxes; that's the way it is. Talk to me about educating young people. Talk to me about putting people to work. Talk about something that means something.”
Mr. Hankerson cuts hair in a neighborhood that is heavily Democratic. He and most of the people who climb into one of the four chairs at the Stag Barber Shop who vote will take a Democratic ballot and choose between Vice President Al Gore and former New Jersey Sen. Bill Bradley.
Ten miles to the north, in Deer Park, are about two dozen people who battled a snowstorm one night recently to get to the Deer Park Republican Club meeting. They will have a much different choice to make — whether to follow the leadership and the money in their party and support George W. Bush for president or go with one of the GOP alternatives.
But whether they are Democratic voters in Avondale or Republicans in Deer Park, voters here say they will be listening carefully to what the candidates have to say.
“People will pay attention when it gets closer to home,” said Donna Walker, a vice president of the Ameriana Bank in Deer Park and a Bush supporter.
But when voters in Ohio do tune in, they may find a contest where the front-runners are gaining momentum and the challengers are clinging to fast-fading hopes.
On the Democratic side, the Bradley campaign got a jolt Monday when Mr. Gore swept the Iowa caucuses, the first real voting event of the presidential campaign season. Mr. Gore ended up with 63 percent of the caucus vote, compared with 35 percent for Mr. Bradley. Many think Mr. Bradley must win the New Hampshire primary next week or his campaign could be out of gas by the time it reaches Ohio.
Mr. Bush won a solid 41 percent of the Republican caucus vote in Iowa, but magazine publisher Steve Forbes' 30 percent showing and a strong challenge from Arizona Sen. John McCain in New Hampshire makes it much more likely the March 7 round of primaries will be meaningful events.
Ohio's primary election was originally scheduled for March 21, but the state's legislative leaders thought that was too late in the process for Ohio to have any impact on who the parties' presidential nominees would be, so they moved it up to March 7.
The problem is, so did a number of other states, and now 10 other states will hold their primaries on the same day as Ohio, including delegate-rich prizes such as California and New York.
If the contests for the Democratic and Republican presidential nominations are not decided before, many political observers think they will be over on that date, when 57 percent of the GOP delegates and 59 percent of the Democratic delegates will be selected.
On the Democratic side, Mr. Bradley will likely still be battling Mr. Gore for the nomination by the time the campaign reaches Ohio next month. Mr. Bradley has vowed to stay in the race through the March 7 primaries regardless of how he finishes Tuesday in New Hampshire, where most polls show the race a dead heat.
In Ohio, Republican voters will choose from a five-candidate field — Mr. Bush, the front-runner; Mr. McCain, who has emerged as the principal challenger, Mr. Forbes, former Ambassador Alan Keyes and Newport native Gary Bauer. Utah Sen. Orrin Hatch dropped out of the race Tuesday, although he was never on the Ohio ballot.
Mr. Bush has raised millions in Ohio, and GOP leaders such as Gov. Bob Taft and U.S. Sen. George Voinovich have endorsed him. But there is significant support for other candidates.
Ohio Secretary of State J. Kenneth Blackwell is national chairman of the Forbes campaign, and U.S. Sen. Mike DeWine has been raising money for Mr. McCain in Ohio.
Both Mr. Gore and Mr. Bradley made forays into Ohio last year to raise money, and both will be back once the New Hampshire primary is over.
Most of the state's Democratic Party establishment has gathered around the Gore candidacy, but the Bradley campaign is building campaign organizations in most major Ohio cities, including Cincinnati.
Cincinnati lawyer Donald Mooney, who worked on Gary Hart's presidential campaign in 1984, is heading the Bradley effort in Southwest Ohio. Mr. Mooney said that when he started last year, he worked from a list of about 50 people he thought would want to help.
Since then, Mr. Mooney said, Mr. Bradley's national campaign headquarters has forwarded a list of more than 200 local people who volunteered through the campaign's Web site.
“We are going to have a good, competitive race in Ohio, and I think that's healthy,” Mr. Mooney said.
Julia Ward Perdue, a retired teacher from East Walnut Hills who is a longtime Democratic activist, said she is leaning toward Mr. Gore but the Ohio primary should be “very competitive.”
“I think there are enough Democrats out there who want a break from Bill Clinton to make it a real race,” Mrs. Perdue said.
On the Republican side, it is likely that the Bush, Forbes and McCain campaigns will have the resources to battle for Ohio's 69 delegates to the Republican National Convention.
Cuyahoga County Republican Party Chairman Jim Trakas, who is backing Mr. Bush, said that while the Texas governor is “far and away” the favorite to win Ohio, Mr. McCain and Mr. Forbes could make it a real race.
“There are still people out there looking for alternatives,” Mr. Trakas said.
But if the results of recent statewide polls are an indication, Mr. Bush has solid support among Ohio Republicans, and Mr. Bradley has a long way to go before he can catch Mr. Gore.
The Ohio Poll, conducted by the University of Cincinnati's Institute for Policy Research between Jan. 7 and 19, sampled 351 registered Republicans and found that Mr. Bush had 64 percent support, compared with 19 percent for Mr. McCain. No other candidate polled more than 5 percent.
On the Democratic side, a sampling of 316 likely Ohio Democratic primary voters showed 58 percent supporting Mr. Gore, with 27 percent for Mr. Bradley.
The poll's error margin was 5 percentage points in the Republican race and 5.5 percentage points in the Democratic race.
On Jan. 15, at a breakfast meeting of northeast Hamilton County Republicans, a straw poll of 243 GOP voters showed Mr. Bush with 67 percent, while Mr. McCain and Mr. Forbes took 14 percent each and Mr. Keyes took 4 percent. Mr. Bauer received no votes.
John Applegate, an insurance agent from Deer Park, was one of those casting a Bush ballot in the straw poll.
“He's had the experience as governor of Texas, and he seems to be an honorable fellow,” Mr. Applegate said. “But I think one of the main reasons Republicans want him is that he's the one who has the best shot of winning next fall, and we all want to win.”
Barbara Patmann of Deer Park said she, too, supports Mr. Bush, although she is not convinced he is the best her party could offer.
“I'm hesitant. I'm not sure how qualified he is,” Mrs. Patmann said. “I'll be listening to hear what all the candidates have to say.”
Mrs. Walker, who chairs the Deer Park Republican Club, said she had initial doubts about Mr. Bush, saying he seemed “enigmatic, out of touch. But the more I hear of him, the more I like him.”
Election officials in Ohio will be pleased if half of the state's registered voters, Democrats and Republicans, show up to make the decision on a presidential candidate.
Many people are tuned out to politics. Patricia Smith, a young mother from Avondale who cuts hair at the Stag Barber Shop, is one of them; she has voted for two years and said she hasn't heard anything so far that will make her go to the polls in this primary election.
“Politicians come and shake your hand at election time and tell you they will do this and do that for you,” Ms. Smith said. “Then, when the election is over, they forget you.
“When one of them remembers what promises he made and does something about it,” Ms. Smith said, “Then maybe I'll pay attention.”
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