Thursday, February 03, 2000
Bush win is no sure thing in Ohio
BY HOWARD WILKINSON
The Cincinnati Enquirer
In 33 days, George W. Bush will find out if Ohio Republicans are as independent as their counterparts in New Hampshire.
Tuesday, the Bush campaign, which had been picking up big dollars and high-profile endorsements in Ohio and a host of other states, was doused with cold water by voters in the New Hampshire primary. Arizona Sen. John McCain buried the apparent front-runner, 49 percent to 31 percent.
In about five weeks, Ohio Republicans will go to the polls in their own primary, on a day when voters in a dozen states — including powerhouses California and New York — will be choosing about half the delegates to the Republican National Convention.
Between now and then, the McCain campaign hopes to keep its momentum going in primaries in South Carolina and Michigan, and derail the Texas governor before the race gets here.
Bush supporters in Ohio — which includes most of the GOP establishment, from Gov. Robert Taft on down — are banking on Mr. Bush's early organizing and fund-raising in Ohio to carry him.
But, with the Bush image of inevitability tarnished by the New Hampshire loss, some are wondering if Mr. Bush's huge lead in Ohio polls will hold between now and then.
“If I were totally dependent on the Republican establishment the way Bush has been, I'd start to question what the establishment has been able to deliver so far,” said Cincinnatian J. Kenneth Blackwell, national chairman of the Steve Forbes campaign. Mr. Forbes finished a distant third in New Hampshire.
Mr. McCain depended on independent voters who chose to vote in the Republican primary for his large margin of victory in New Hampshire.
“New Hampshire lived up to its independent reputation,” said U.S. Rep. Rob Portman, R-Terrace Park, who spent seven days campaigning for Mr. Bush in New Hampshire.
But Ohio is a much different place than New Hampshire, where there is a long history of a large block of independent voters drifting from one party's primary to the other.
“You're never going to have four out of 10 voters in a Republican primary in Ohio be independents, no way,” said Ohio Republican Party chairman Bob Bennett. “You don't have people bouncing all over the place in this state.”
But, Mr. Bennett said, if Ohioans who don't usually vote in one party's primary or the other “see a good hot race they're interested in, you could see a fair number of undeclared voters voting in that race.”
Herb Asher, professor emeritus of political science at Ohio State University, said that a candidate like Mr. McCain could well come into Ohio and target independent voters, trying to make the case that they should ask for Republican ballots on March 7.
“It's harder to do here in Ohio than in New Hampshire, but it makes some sense to go after them and make your case,” Mr. Asher said.
The McCain campaign, so far, has put most of its organizational resources in New Hampshire and South Carolina, and has little organization here.
But, as in many states, the Ohio support for Mr. McCain is centered among military veterans who admire the former Navy pilot who spent 51/2 years as a prisoner of the North Vietnamese. A retired Air Force colonel, Dave Ford of Heath, is organizing the Ohio chapter of “McCain Patriots,” Mr. McCain's national veterans organization.
Four of the five candidates on Ohio's GOP primary ballot — all except Gary Bauer, who got 1 percent in New Hampshire, and is likely to drop out by March 7 — will have active campaign organizations in Ohio.
The Bush campaign has had a campaign organization headquartered in Columbus for weeks, and the campaigns of Mr. Forbes and former ambassador Alan Keyes have opened offices in Columbus.
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