Saturday, February 12, 2000
Critical time for NCAA tourney hopefuls
Month to go to improve credentials
BY MIKE DeCOURCY
The Cincinnati Enquirer
At this time of year, there are no bad leagues and no bad teams, and there should be room cleared for roughly 426 teams in the field for the NCAA Tournament.
This is the sense you get if you talk to college basketball's coaches. Most of them, anyway.
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PROJECTED 64
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There may be no job in sports more perilous than trying to predict the field for the NCAA Tournament with one month remaining in the regular season. But we'll take a stab, listing the teams by conference:
America East: Hofstra
Atlantic 10: Temple, Dayton
ACC: Duke, Maryland, North Carolina, NC State, Virginia
Big 12: Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Iowa State, Texas, Missouri, Kansas
Big East: Syracuse, Seton Hall, Miami, St.John's, Connecticut
Big Sky: Cal State Northridge
Big South: Winthrop
Big Ten: Michigan State, Ohio State, Indiana, Purdue, Illinois
Big West: Utah State, Long Beach State
Colonial: George Mason
C-USA: Cincinnati, DePaul, Tulane, South Florida
Ivy: Penn
Metro Atlantic: Siena
Mid-American: Bowling Green, Kent
Mid-Continent: Youngstown State
MEAC: Coppin State
MCC: Butler
Missouri Valley: Indiana State
Mountain West: Utah, UNLV
Northeast: Central Connecticut State
Ohio Valley: Southeast Missouri State
Pac-10: Arizona, Stanford, Oregon, California
Patriot: Navy
SEC: Kentucky, Tennessee, Florida, Vanderbilt, LSU, Auburn
Southern: College of Charleston
Southland: Sam Houston State
SWAC: Southern
Sun Belt: Louisiana-Lafayette
Trans-America: Troy State
West Coast: Gonzaga
WAC: Tulsa, Fresno State
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If you ask Kevin Stallings of Vanderbilt, you get a refreshing dose of honesty rather than the typical lobbying on behalf of any and all of his cohorts in the Southeastern Conference.
“I certainly think our league is worthy of a lot of teams being in. We have so many good teams,” Stallings said. “I'm not worried how many we get in, though. I just want to make sure Vanderbilt is one of them.”
Selection Sunday is March 12, precisely one month away, with teams having that much longer to make themselves presentable to the committee choosing the teams for the 2000 NCAA Tournament. One thing is certain about that month: No one will talk his way into the tournament.
Coaches in Conference USA insist their league merits five NCAA bids, although they couldn't begin to tell you which five teams ought to make it. Coaches in the Atlantic Coast Conference still are griping about last year, when their league placed only three among the 64 in the field.
The problem with posturing about potential tournament bids is not so much that it's pointless — which it is — but that it's premature. What seems nearly indecipherable in mid-February most often sorts itself by early March.
It's impossible to say how many Conference USA teams will look like NCAA teams by then. Currently, C-USA has eight of its 12 members with league records between 4-5 and 6-4. If any three or four of those could take command of the race for first-division finishes behind the Cincinnati Bearcats, the NCAA selection committee's job would not be so difficult.
In the 10 major conferences, from the Atlantic 10 to the Western Athletic, there are 51 teams that are five games over .500 and own at least 13 victories. There are another 21 automatic bids available, and there are teams in the mid-majors (such as Gonzaga, Kent, Long Beach State and Indiana State) that may merit NCAA at-large berths if they don't win their conference titles.
That's at least 76 teams, which is a dozen more than the tournament cares to accommodate. That means teams such as Illinois, Fresno State and Mississippi have to accomplish something in the interim that will force the selection committee to view them favorably.
The Ratings Percentage Index, AP poll and won-loss records all may be considered, along with the manner in which a team plays its last 10 games. But one of the most important elements of the process is whether a team simply performs like a tournament team.
St. Bonaventure (14-6) visits Dayton tonight. If the Bonnies were to get a win in UD Arena, the committee would have to pay attention.
Marquette (13-8) plays at Louisville Sunday. The Golden Eagles won at DePaul last month and at Southern Mississippi two weeks back. One more win like that, plus a little damage done in the C-USA tournament, and they could be back in the show for the first time since 1997.
There are many teams that fall into the same category — including Xavier, West Virginia, Villanova and Southern California — and they are the ones who will determine if they're in the picture when the real debate begins among the committee members.
There are some issues, though, that are more clear for observers to follow:
• With its recent stumbles, Syracuse has put the fourth No.1 seed in play. Cincinnati, Stanford and Duke still remain on course to earn the top seeds in the Midwest, West and East regions, but Syracuse's consecutive losses and soft schedule rating (98th out 318 teams) give Arizona and the teams fighting for the SEC title (Tennessee, Kentucky, Florida) and the Big Ten (Michigan State, Ohio State, Indiana) the opportunity to play for No.1 in the South.
• Temple is being dismissed as a mid-level seed by many of the internet-based media outlets doing bracket projections, but they're forgetting the injury that kept guard Pepe Sanchez from eight games. The Owls were 5-3 without Sanchez but are 12-1 with him and have won eight in a row. The selection committee considers injuries that impacted a team's overall record, so long as the player is back in place when the tournament begins.
• Gonzaga may create a complex seeding issue for the committee. The Bulldogs played a difficult non-conference schedule and went 10-5, but are 8-0 in the West Coast Conference and have won 10 in a row. They proved they could compete in the NCAAs by making the Elite Eight last season; should they be punished for playing in the WCC, which ranks 16th among conferences?
Like the teams in the murky middle, Syracuse, Temple and Gonzaga can continue to bolster their own cases by continuing to win. They'll get a lot farther with a few more Ws than a thousands more words.
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