Wednesday, February 23, 2000
Santana should see 'Smooth' sailing at Grammys
It will take a 'Supernatural' upset to stop the veteran guitarist
BY LARRY NAGER
The Cincinnati Enquirer
Predicting the Grammys can be risky business. Not this year.
Bet the 401-K, your kids' college funds and the family dog on Carlos Santana.
The 11-times nominated (including twice in the pop collaboration category) guitar great will dominate tonight's awards. The Bonnie Raitt Factor alone ensures him repeated walks to the podium.
The Grammy folks love to honor a classy veteran who has gone unnoticed through most of his or her career. Grammy-less until 1989's awards, Ms. Raitt won four big ones that night, a trend that continued with Eric Clapton's six Grammys in 1992.
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ON THE AIR
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• What: The 42nd Annual Grammy Awards.
• When: 8 p.m. today.
• Where: Channels 12, 7.
• Host: Rosie O'Donnell.
• Performers: the Dixie Chicks, Faith Hill, Whitney Houston, Kid Rock, Britney Spears, Santana, Backstreet Boys, TLC, Sting, Ricky Martin, Marc Anthony, Pancho Sanchez, Chucho Valdez, Cheb Mami and Ibrahim Ferrer.
Official Grammy Website
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Add to that the phenomenal commercial success of Supernatural and its huge hit single “Smooth” — plus the CD's calculated cross-generational appeal — and Mr. Santana, 52, looks unbeatable.
That's good news for Itaal Shur, the former Cincinnatian who wrote “Smooth” with Matchbox 20's Rob Thomas. Mr. Shur will surf the Santana wave all the way to the song of the year Grammy.
That song will also win record of the year and pop collaboration. Supernatural will take general album honors as well as rock album of the year.
Rock instrumental will go to “The Calling,” which adds Grammy favorite Mr. Clapton to the Santana momentum. Rock duo/group Grammy will go to the Santana/Everlast collaboration “Put Your Lights On,” despite a strong field that includes Garbage, Hole and Red Hot Chili Peppers.
Christina a winner
In non-Santana events, the best new artist award will likely go to Christina Aguilera, whose impressive voice, combined with huge record sales, should make her a winner over Britney Spears.
Macy Gray made a fine album, and Kid Rock is there to represent the new rock/metal fusion. Just to shake things up, this writer's vote went to guitar-toting blueswomen Susan Tedeschi.
For pop female, Ms. Aguilera won't be enough to beat the Lilith Fair phenomenon, which should tilt the vote to Sarah McLachlan's beautiful ballad from Mirror Ball (originally done for The Brothers McMullen) “I Will Remember You.”
Other predictions:
Pop album: If the Grammys recognize the boy band movement, it'll be here, giving the award to the Backstreet Boys' Millennium.
Dance recording: Powering yet another Cher comeback, the winner is “Believe.”
Traditional pop album: Bennett Sings Ellington — Hot and Cool. Tony Bennett hasn't lost one yet, and the addition of Duke Ellington makes him invincible.
Female rock: The Grammys love Sheryl Crow, who will win it for her rarely heard Guns N' Roses cover, “Sweet Child o' Mine.”
Male rock: Powered by the E Street Band reunion world tour, Bruce Springsteen's anciently recorded, newly released “The Promise” will win.
Hard rock performance: Old favorites Metallica win for their folk-metal version of “Whiskey in the Jar.”
Metal: Those grand old men of metal, Black Sabbath, win for “Iron Man.”
Alternative: Beck's Mutations.
R&B female: “All That I Can Say,” by Mary J. Blige will beat the toughest competition, Lauryn Hill's “Everything Is Everything.” But Ms. Hill wrote Ms. Blige's song, and it will win the R&B song award.
R&B male: Following the veteran theme set by Mr. Santana, the R&B male award will go to Barry White's Staying Power. It also will win the traditional R&B award, despite a strong showing by Wilson Pickett's It's Harder Now.
R&B album: TLC's Fanmail.
Country female: Man I Feel Like a Grammy! Shania Twain wins it.
Country male: Grammy champ Vince Gill is a nominee, but after his near-death experience and the support of people like Alan Jackson, veteran George Jones will win for “Choices.”
Country duo or group: The Dixie Chicks are a no-brainer for Fly, which also takes country album honors.
Bluegrass album: A deserved win by the Steve Earle/Del McCoury Band collaboration The Mountain.
Traditional blues: B.B. King, after years of casually tossed-off albums, dug in his heels on Blues on the Bayou. He deserves the Grammy.
Contemporary blues: He's up against platinum blues upstart Jonny Lang, but the late Luther Allison deserves the award for his blistering Live in Chicago.
The Grammys are decided by the 11,000 voting members of the National Academy of Recording Arts & Sciences, including Enquirer pop music critic Larry Nager.
Official Grammy Website
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