Tuesday, March 07, 2000
Ohio turnout could affect GOP race
BY HOWARD WILKINSON
The Cincinnati Enquirer
Someday, some historian may come to the conclusion that an American president was elected in November 2000 because it was sunny and warm in Ohio.
Turnout may be the key to who wins today's Ohio presidential primary — particularly on the Republican side, where Texas Gov. George W. Bush and Arizona Sen. John McCain are going head-to-head in 11 state primaries and a caucus in Minnesota.
When the day is done, the GOP presidential contest may be over.
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And if the GOP nominee wins the White House this fall, Ohio Republican primary voters will have played a big role in making it possible.
The turnout is not expected to have much impact on the Democratic presidential primary today in Ohio, where Vice President Al Gore leads former New Jersey senator Bill Bradley in the polls by anywhere from 40 to 50 percentage points. Neither Democratic candidate has spent much time in the state.
Ohio voters will have dozens of other issues and a large number of contested races to decide today, as well, on both the Democratic and Republican sides.
In southwest Ohio, there are numerous contested races for Ohio House seats thrown open by Ohio's term limits law and, in the Cincinnati Public School District, voters will decide two school levies — one a renewal and the other an additional tax.
All these issues and more are expected to drive up turnout, along with the expected good weather. The polls are open 6:30 a.m.-7:30 p.m.
In Ohio — the third largest of the states holding primaries today — turnout is considered key to Mr. McCain's chances of keeping his candidacy alive.
If Mr. McCain wins Ohio — together with New York and a sweep of the New England states voting today — the conventional wisdom says that he can keep his campaign alive and well and possibly fight Mr. Bush for the nomination all the way to the Republican convention this summer in Philadelphia.
He is behind in the polls but supporters hope that a large turnout today — something that should be encouraged by the summerlike weather report — could help Mr. McCain, particularly if large numbers of people who don't usually vote in primary elections show up and choose Mr. McCain, as they did last month in Michigan.
“The bigger the turnout, the better,” said Cincinnati City Councilman Pat DeWine Monday as he and other McCain volunteers stood on street corners downtown and passed out leaflets to office workers on their lunch breaks.
A smaller turnout might benefit Mr. Bush because it would mean that only the hard-core Republican voters in Ohio would be showing up, and public opinion polls show them to be solidly in Mr. Bush's camp.
Ohio Secretary of State J. Kenneth Blackwell has predicted that as many as 3 million of the state's 7 million registered voters will show up at the polls today. If he is right, it would shatter the old record of 2.4 million in 1984, when the Democrats had a hotly contested presidential primary.
Julie Stautberg, director of the Hamilton County Board of Elections, predicted last week that 35 percent of the county's 560,959 voters would show up today. But, on Monday, with forecasters calling for sunshine and a temperature in the 70s, Ms. Stautberg hedged her bet.
“If the weather's that good, it could go higher,” she said.
Mr. McCain's campaign has targeted independent voters who usually ask for an “issues only” ballot In primary elections.
Two weeks ago in Michigan, independents and Democrats crossed over to vote in the GOP primary who gave Mr. McCain his win. But, in Ohio, Democrats have their own presidential contest, however lopsided, and the McCain campaign is focusing on turning out independents.
Monday, Ohio Gov. Bob Taft, along with Mr. Blackwell and U.S. Rep. Rob Portman, greeted diners at Hathaway's restaurant in the Carew Tower and at the Tower Place food court as part of a two-day campaign blitz through Ohio aimed at drumming up votes for Mr. Bush.
Mr. Taft acknowledged that the independent “issues only” voters are the great unknown of today's Ohio GOP primary.
“It's very tough to predict who will show up and how they will vote,” Mr. Taft said at the food court. “It's going to be a record turnout, no doubt about that. Our job is to convince those independents who vote in the Republican primary to vote for Bush.”
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