Tuesday, March 14, 2000
Drought likely to get worse, U.S. says
Northwest part of Ohio in forecast
BY PHILIP BRASHER
The Associated Press
WASHINGTON — That warm, dry winter has a dark side. A drought has developed across the southern United States and much of the Midwest, and it's likely to get worse in many areas before it goes away, the government said Monday.
“It's going to take a large, large amount of precipitation” to end the drought, and “we don't see anything on the horizon to bring that in,” said Jack Kelly, director of the National Weather Service, which released its first-ever drought forecast.
The Tristate has seen some of that heavy precipitation this year.
Rainfall in Cincinnati for January and February was almost 5 inches above normal, said Kim Lubold, an AccuWeather meteorologist.
“That does help out a little,” she said.
Cincinnati had 4.45 inches of rain in January, up from the normal 2.59. In February, 5.71 inches fell, compared with the normal of 2.81.
A drought occurs somewhere in the country every year, typically costing about $6 billion in damage to crops and businesses. But this is the first year the government has attempted to forecast where and how droughts will develop. Scientists say that more sophisticated data collection is making that possible.
This year's drought “could seriously impact farmers, water resource managers, navigation interests and the tourism industry. Forewarned is forearmed,” said D. James Baker, the top official at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which oversees the weather service.
Scientists attribute the dry weather to La Nina, the weather pattern that is related to cooler than normal temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific Ocean. La Nina is expected to linger for several months at least.
The forecast said the drought is likely to intensify from Arizona to the Carolinas this spring and could possibly get worse in a section of the Midwest that stretches from northwest Ohio to eastern Nebraska. That region isn't as dry as the South, so a few significant rains could alleviate the problem, officials said.
Despite the downpours of January and February, the Tristate is beginning to see aftereffects of the 1999 drought, said Joe Boggs, commercial horticulture agent for the Hamilton County Extension Service.
“Conifers, pines and spruces are suffering severely from last year,” said Mr. Boggs.
“Last week's warmup led to quite a few dying. They actually died last fall, but they were holding their needles like dead cut Christmas trees.”
Established conifers were dying, not just freshly planted trees that are likely to struggle, he said.
The region needs several consecutive days of rain.
“We are teetering,” Mr. Boggs said. “The surface water isn't bad, but it's slowly moving down in our clay soil. When foliage comes out, it won't take too many consecutive dry days for the soil to dry out. We need to be hoping and praying for extended wet periods.”
At this time, conditions are good for planting corn and soybeans because there is enough surface moisture.
Kentucky's corn and soybean farmers have ground to make up from a bad 1999.
The state's corn yield of 98 bushels per acre last year was the smallest since 1991, said Roger Nesbitt, a spokesman for the Kentucky Farm Bureau in Louisville. The 1998 yield was 115 bushels per acre.
The news is worse for soybean farmers, who had the smallest crop in 28 years and the lowest yield per acre since 1983, the state's last great drought. About 19 bushels per acre were produced in 1998, compared with 30 in 1998, which was an average year, Mr. Nesbitt said.
Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama experienced their driest February in 106 years. In Georgia, the drought dates to May 1998.
As of last week, Baton Rouge, La., had received 3.4 inches of rain since the beginning of the year, well below the normal level of over 11 inches
East of the Mississippi River, streams are at record low levels, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. Nearly all the streams within the Ohio, Tennessee and lower Mississippi River basins and along the Gulf and south Atlantic coasts are flowing below normal.
“Think of it as not having enough money in the bank. We have not had enough water during our normally wet winter to put in our groundwater bank for our normally dry summer and fall,” said Charles Groat, director of the Geological Survey.
On the positive side, officials said the dry conditions mean there is little likelihood of spring flooding.
The drought that gripped the East Coast last summer disappeared after a series of tropical storms.
Agriculture Department officials said it is too early to tell whether this year's drought will have any impact on commodity or food prices. However, more than 60 percent of the winter wheat crop in Texas is rated no better than poor.
Enquirer reporter Mark Curnutte contributed to this article.
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