Wednesday, March 22, 2000
Final Four far from certain
Handicapping the Sweet 16
BY MIKE DeCOURCY
The Cincinnati Enquirer
![[img]](/bearcats/img/photos/2000/03/031900lose_120x183.jpg)
After beating UC, Brandon Kurtz and his Tulsa team could reach the Final Four.
(AP photos)
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In any other season, Tulsa and Gonzaga could be satisfied. They have traveled from obscurity to the NCAA Tournament's Sweet 16. But this time, there is no need to stop.
This time, the path to the Final Four is so wide open, you could taxi through on a 767.
We have seen teams from lower-profile conferences make it this far, from Chattanooga in 1997 to Valparaiso in 1998 to Southwest Missouri State and the Miami RedHawks in 1999. Each time, they arrived in the company of opponents far more talented.
This year, there are no favorites in the West and South regions, only contenders. Michigan State stands atop the Midwest and Duke is the pick in the East, but neither was dominant enough in the first two rounds to appear invulnerable.
The second-round results that drove five of the tournament's top eight seeds into early offseasons opened the possibility of a Final Four unlike any since the 64-team tournament began in 1985.
There is no team seeded above No.4 left in the West or the South, which is why Tulsa and Gonzaga can do more than fantasize about reaching their first Final Four. Tennessee, LSU, Duke and Michigan State could congregate at the RCA Dome a week from now. Or it could be Oklahoma State, Tulsa, Gonzaga and Iowa State.
We know which lineup CBS would prefer.
The network, though, may be disappointed.
• East: Duke's struggle to defeat Kansas and its occasional pressure does not suggest the Blue Devils are ready to deal with Florida's all-out scramble, and they also lost to teams such as Maryland and St.John's that pressured the ball.
Duke point guard Jason Williams is averaging four turnovers a game and had eight in the win over Kansas. If he doesn't find a way to play with greater control, coach Mike Krzyzewski could lose in the Sweet 16 for the first time since 1987.
Presuming the turnovers are cut to a reasonable number, the Blue Devils' ability to take advantage of open shots the press makes available should get them through.
A probable game against Oklahoma State would be difficult. The Cowboys have superior depth and solid halfcourt defense. Duke remains the favorite, but if the Devils get to Indianapolis, they'll have earned it.
• Midwest: The bracket has been termed by some a mini-Final Four, but the reality is Michigan State is better off playing Syracuse's struggling outfit than a team as aggressive as Miami.
The Orangemen only survived Kentucky by a basket, and they're unlikely to find scoring against Michigan State any more pleasant than it was against the Wildcats.
Although Iowa State is the No.2 seed and on a tremendous roll, Michigan State probably would be better off playing the Cyclones in the regional final than a team as dynamic as UCLA.
If the Bruins were to get that far, they would have solved any confidence problems. And they won't defeat Iowa State's rigid halfcourt defense without displaying some degree of patience. The Spartans would be in much better shape to face a team with Iowa State's obvious size limitations and trust Mateen Cleaves to take care of point guard Jamaal Tinsley's penetration.
• West: Of the teams gathered in Albuquerque, Gonzaga may play in the weakest conference, but it's also the one that went the farthest in the tournament last year. The Bulldogs were just a few points short of the Final Four last season. This is not novel to them. They're thinking about winning.
Gonzaga has the best combination of depth, athletic ability and scoring versatility of the teams in the West. There is no easy game here for them, but that's OK, because they've done well in taking control of close games against Louisville and St.John's.
LSU has the best pure talent but will have to exercise greater offensive patience against Wisconsin than it did against Southeast Missouri State in the opening round. The Tigers just won't be consistent enough to win four more games.
• South: North Carolina and Tennessee have more pure talent than Tulsa and Miami. But should Tulsa win, it will bring greater energy and team unity to the regional final.
Tulsa's defensive intensity is likely to be too great for either UNC or UT to operate an offense, as it often was for the Cincinnati Bearcats.
A lot of media folks described Tulsa's game against UC in the second round as a crusade for recognition, but coach Bill Self knew it was more than that. It was an opportunity.
“People ought to know about us now,” Tulsa guard Dante Swanson said after the Golden Hurricane eliminated UC. “They should know we are good.”
They should know more after this weekend.
Tulsa could wind up in the Final Four. Imagine that.
Sixteen facts about the Sweet 16
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![[img]](/bearcats/img/photos/2000/03/031900lose.jpg)