Thursday, July 06, 2000
Poll finds Bush leads in N.Ky.
Area seen as stronghold for GOP candidate
By Patrick Crowley
The Cincinnati Enquirer
FORT MITCHELL — Northern Kentucky appears to be on its way to becoming George W. Bush country.
An independent polling company says its survey indicates that Mr. Bush, the presumptive Republican presidential candidate, enjoys his strongest support in the state among voters in the 4th Congressional District, a 22-county area that includes all of Northern Kentucky.
The statewide poll was performed June 5 through 16 and released late last week by Preston-Osborne Research, a marketing and research firm in Lexington.
The telephone survey shows that in the 4th District Mr. Bush had 54.8 percent compared to just 22.2 percent for Democrat Al Gore. The survey included interviews of 126 likely voters in the district. The margin of error was plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.
Mr. Bush also led Mr. Gore 51 percent to 36.4 percent in the statewide poll of 743 likely voters. He also finished ahead of Mr. Gore in all six of Kentucky's congressional districts, though his greatest lead was in the 4th District.
“The 4th District is a conservative area, whether you are a Republican or a Demo crat,” said Hayes Robertson, a GOP strategist and campaign consultant from Covington.
“That helps a Republican like George W. Bush. .... And a big margin in the 4th District will help him win the rest of the state in November.”
Republican presidential candidates have enjoyed success in the 4th District, where about half of the voters live in the growing Republican stronghold of Northern Kentucky.
President Bill Clinton — with Mr. Gore as his running mate — carried the state in the 1992 and 1996 elections, but Republicans George Bush and Bob Dole won the 4th District in each of those presidential election years.
Still, the numbers in this latest poll — the first taken since May's primary — were shocking to Kenton County Democratic Party offi cial Peggy Zeil, of Covington.
“It does surprise me,” Ms. Zeil said Wednesday.
“I just find it hard to believe that (Mr. Bush) is that far out there already. I don't understand how there can be such a disparity.”
Ms. Zeil was somewhat dismis sive of the numbers, saying they could be skewed because it is still early in the race and not many people are paying attention yet to the fall election.
But 4th District Republican Party Chairman Marc Carey said he thinks Mr. Bush's margin of victory in the fall will be even larger.
“George W. Bush has tremendous support here,” Mr. Carey said Wednesday. “Let's face it, Al Gore is in favor of a bigger federal bureaucracy which has to consume more tax dollars to support itself.”
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