Friday, July 21, 2000
Loyalty is near top of Bush's VP list
By Howard Wilkinson and Patrick Crowley
The Cincinnati Enquirer
By the time George W. Bush's bus caravan to the GOP convention rolls into Northern Kentucky and Cincinnati next weekend, he will likely have some very valuable cargo on board.
A running mate.
The GOP presidential nominee is expected to make the most important decision of his candidacy and, possibly, his presidency before he embarks on a six-state bus tour that the campaign hopes will end with a dramatic and triumphal entry into Philadelphia Aug. 2, just in time to accept the Republican nomination for president.
Thursday in Austin, Texas, Mr. Bush said he is on the verge of making a choice and acknowledged that a presidential candidate's deci sion on a running mate is much like the first obligation of a physician — to do no harm.
“You want somebody who's not going to hurt you,” Mr. Bush said.
Republican delegates from key battleground states such as Ohio and Kentucky have their personal favorites for the vice presidential choice: homegrown politicians like Ohio's John Kasich or Ken tucky's Jim Bunning, or national figures like Colin Powell or Elizabeth Dole.
But the consensus among Republicans heading into Philadelphia is that Mr. Bush will not pick someone for reasons of political geography or even ideology. The decision, they say, will come down to who Mr. Bush is comfortable running with.
“There will have to be a comfort level between Gov. Bush and his running mate,” said U.S. Rep. Rob Portman, R-Cincinnati, who has close ties to the Bush campaign.
Scott Reed, who went through the vice presidential selection process four years ago as GOP nominee Bob Dole's campaign manager, said he is convinced the first criterion for a running mate will be complete loyalty.
In the Bush political family, Mr. Reed said, subalterns — whether they are vice presidents or campaign staff — have to demonstrate loyalty and avoid doing anything that would attract attention to themselves and away from the Bushes.
“The only people who will be considered are those who recognize their place in the Bush world,” Mr. Reed said.
Sources close to the Bush campaign say there are only three people in on the decision: Richard Cheney, the former defense secretary who is in charge of vetting potential running mates; the candidate's wife, Laura Bush; and the candidate himself.
Perhaps Mr. Bush is trying to avoid the experience of his father, George Bush, in 1988 when he turned to a fairly obscure Indiana senator named Dan Quayle.
But at the 1988 GOP convention in New Orleans, stories quickly surfaced about Mr. Quayle's service in the Indiana National Guard during the Vietnam War and the young senator's stumbling reaction made it clear he wasn't ready for the national stage.
“The way Dan Quayle was treated was unfair, but clearly that wasn't something that was helpful to President Bush,” said U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell, R-Kentucky, an adviser to the Bush campaign.
“You want to avoid a surprise like that,” he said.
Early in the speculation over a Bush running mate, the conventional wisdom was that the Texas governor would pick someone whose presence on the ticket would guarantee the electoral votes of a key state. GOP figures like U.S. Sen. George Voinovich of Ohio and Gov. Tom Ridge of Pennsylvania fit that bill.
But Mr. Bush is leading in the polls in most of the key states. Now, Republican strategists say they expect a running mate who will help Mr. Bush with key voter constituencies, such as wom en or Catholic voters, who backed Bill Clinton in the last two presidential contests.
“The days of picking a running mate to nail down a state are over,” Mr. Reed said. “Now, you go for someone who (A) won't hurt you and (B) can help with a key constituency.
Hayes Robertson of Covington, a Northern Kentucky GOP strategist and fund-raiser who is an alternate delegate to the convention, agreed.
“Now, it's all about where a candidate stands on social issues,” Mr. Robertson said.
Ohio Secretary of State Ken Blackwell, chairman of Steve Forbes' failed bid for the GOP nomination, said he is convinced the running mate will be a Catholic.
“The Bush campaign seems to have zeroed in on Catholic voters and Hispanics,” Mr. Blackwell said. “And, since most Hispanics are Catholics, that's what the running mate will be.”
In the past week, much of the speculation has centered on Oklahoma Gov. Frank Keating, a Catholic who got high marks for his handling of the bombing of the federal office building in Oklahoma City and who has solid anti-abortion credentials. Mr. Keating is not related to the Cincinnati Keatings.
Some GOP leaders fear a backlash from the party's conservative base if Mr. Bush, an abortion opponent, picks a running mate who favors abortion rights.
Other Republican leaders say an abortion rights running mate — such as Mr. Ridge of Pennsylvania or New Jersey Gov. Christine Todd Whitman — would be acceptable to “pro-life” voters because of Mr. Bush's anti-abortion stand.
But Barbara Willke of Cincinnati — one of the founders of the National Right to Life movement — said a running mate who favors abortion rights would turn off the very voters Mr. Bush needs: bedrock conservative Republicans and Democrats who oppose abortion.
“It's not like they would not have anywhere else to go but to Bush,” Mrs. Willke said. “They could just give up and go to the shopping malls on election day.”
In the end, though, many Republicans say the choice will have as much to do with who hurts the ticket least as it does with who helps it the most.
“In the end, he'll take a safe bet,” Mr. Reed said. “All he really wants to do is not be embarrassed.”
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