Forget Ebenezer, this is the time of year when retailers could use a visit from the Ghost of Christmas Future so they can prepare for a memorable Christmas present.

        For almost all merchants, the shopping season that begins Thanksgiving weekend is a fly-or-die season. Most at risk are the independents, often small players who have less negotiating clout with vendors and more personal wealth invested. These specialty stores, catalogs or startup Internet sites have lots of hope but little margin for error.

Frontgate sales associate Shauntae McCall straightens items in the store. (Glenn Hartong photo) | ZOOM |

        Some independent merchants will invest an entire year's profits in holiday merchandise, banking on enough sales to carry them through to the next year. Some — especially online stores — rely on the season to build their customer base, seeing it as an investment in future business. Some have years of experience to fall back on, but still tie themselves into knots to keep every customer.

        While shoppers worry about finding the right gift in time, some independent merchants worry about surviving to see another Christmas.

        “It's crunch time,” said Eugene Fram, a J. Warren McClure professor of marketing at the Rochester Institute of Technology. “This is the time that they make their profit or don't make their profits. You do everything you can to make those sales.”

        Making sales is hard these days. Shoppers are time-deprived and cost-conscious, qualities that make them more fickle and demanding than ever. Given so many ways to shop — superstores, discounters, catalogs, the Internet — consumer's are loyal only to the best value and service.

        “You want my money?” said Karen Hosey of Mason. “Either you serve me or I go elsewhere, because I have more choices now.”

        Alas, life for a retailer can be, at best, the Dickens.

        The key challenge for retailers is providing the Karen Hoseys of the world a pleasing shopping experience so that they buy and — more important — buy again. According to the 2000 “Holiday Mood Survey” conducted by Deloitte & Touche and the National Retail Federation, American consumers are expected to spend $836 each on the holidays this year. That's a lot of business up for grabs.

        “Everybody tells me they have less and less time to shop,” said Britt Beemer, chairman of America's Research Group, a Charleston, S.C.-based behavior research firm. “That means they go to fewer places.”

        In fact, a 1999 survey conducted by Mr. Beemer shows that 38 percent of all shoppers spent 90 percent of their Christmas dollars at one place last year.

        Service is central to the shopping experience, and so is good merchandise. No amount of kind words can help if that desired red sweater is out of stock. Figuring out how much to have on hand is the independent merchant's biggest gamble.

        “The sheer increase in the competition has required retailers to have to work harder to live up to standards,” said Loveland shopper Andrea Lachter, co-owner of Lazy Gourmet catering. “People don't have a tolerance for human error or just that things take time. We're speeding forward so fast.”

        Following are the stories of how three local retailers are approaching the crunch time of holiday shopping. They include a boutique store owner, an e-tailer and a cataloger, all of whom must make the most of the next few weeks in order to earn annual profit, and build a future customer base.

It's crunch time for merchants, shoppers
Holiday shoppers expected to spend slightly less
The specialty shop
The catalog store
The Internet company