The weather was right. The crop is good. The price outlook is the best ever. But burley tobacco growers say the promising news could be meaningless after years of government-ordered crop cuts and bad PR.

        Today, as burley auctions open across the nation's eight-state burley belt that includes Kentucky, Ohio and Indiana, growers wonder whether this year's selling season will erase the sting of the immediate past.

        They can only hope that the bumper crop and high selling prices will provide some comfort in these times when tobacco companies are demanding less U.S.-grown tobacco, relying more on foreign imports and considering new marketing programs that leave most tobacco growers uneasy.

        Fewer people are smoking, cigarette prices are increasing as companies pay lawsuit settlements and anti-smoking campaigns are succeeding.

        The government has not shielded them in these troubled times. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) determines how much tobacco growers can produce and sell each year. This quota system began about 60 years ago to protect the growers, keep the supply of tobacco in check with the tobacco companies' demands and provide the growers' minimum price supports.

        Yet the USDA has made tobacco growers take quota cuts for three consecutive years. About 250 million pounds will fulfill the 2000 national quota. That's approximately 65 percent less than the 1997 quota of 704.5 million pounds.

        All the bad news had Warren Richardson, a southern Kenton County grower, anxious for today's opening.

        This year “turned out a decent leaf and a decent crop,” he said.

        But, “we really won't know (what to expect) until we go to weigh it at the market. We know what kind of price we're going to get. That is good news. When you're in a sea of bad blood, any good news helps.”

        Gene Hodges, 58, of Burlington, said this year's crop is probably the best he has seen in awhile but, “it's going to depend on what the tobacco companies do.”

        According to the USDA, Mr. Hodges can sell 7,300 pounds of tobacco this year. He hopes to receive a record-tying $1.92 a pound for the tobacco leaf that he has nurtured since the spring, reaping more than $14,000 for his care and diligence.

        First, he must take his crop to one of the burley warehouses opening today and operating through Feb. 22.

        There, USDA representatives will grade the tobacco and determine its minimum selling price. It will be placed with other bales of bound tobacco, which stretch across the warehouse floors. Auctioneers walk alongside the rows of tobacco, rattling off suggested prices to tobacco company representatives as they pass each bale.

        Growers will stand nearby, praying that tobacco companies buy at the maximum price.

        “This year is going to be an interesting year because of all the many different changes that have taken place,” said Allen Harman, vice president of the Lexington-based Burley Tobac co Growers Cooperative Association. “Everyone's kind of backing off and waiting to see what's going

        to happen. We're trying to predict the future and nobody knows what the future is going to be.”

        Tobacco growers throughout the burley belt are enjoying a bumper crop.

        Because of this year's favorable mix of dry and wet conditions, the 2000 crop is thought to be the best in quality since 1996. The leaves are richer in color — more red and tan — than last year, which was plagued by drought conditions.

        The high-quality crop has offset the USDA's mandate that growers produce and sell 45.3 percent less tobacco than they did in 1999, which was based on the tobacco companies' lessening demand for U.S.-grown tobacco. The “basic quota” cut was the deepest ever.

        Based on that 2000 “basic quota,” growers should have produced about 248 million pounds this year. But the federal government allows growers to “carry over” some of their quota from the year before.

        This “effective quota” means that up to 360 million pounds of tobacco could be sold this year.

        “I'm real excited about this year's market in a rather guarded way. (But) we've got a whole lot less tobacco to market” because of the quota cuts, said Kentucky Rep. Tom McKee, D-Cynthiana, a tobacco grower.

        Last year, 550 million pounds sold at an average of $1.90 a pound. The sales generated about $1 billion throughout the burley belt. Kentucky, which produces at least 70 percent of the nation's burley, generated most of the sales.

        This year, even if the $1.92 per-pound predictions hold true, the belt will generate about $691 million. Kentucky would receive roughly $484 million of that.

        “The good news is the price is going to be strong. The bad news is the pounds they have available to sell is reduced considerably. (And) there are several unknowns out there,” said Will Snell, who teaches agricultural economics at the University of Kentucky.

        Mr. Snell said Philip Morris Cos.'s new contracting program could place the biggest damper on this year's selling season. The new effort — not yet tried by any other tobacco companies — guarantees contracted farmers a definite buyer at the end of their curing season and offers selling prices higher than the ones offered at warehouses opening today.

        Many tobacco growers have signed up, saying the program offers a firm footing in a dying business. Philip Morris contracted for 100 million pounds of tobacco this year. Six warehouses in Kentucky, including one in Maysville, began receiving the tobacco two weeks ago. Prices have reached $2 a pound.

        Philip Morris representatives have said they will still buy a good portion of their tobacco from the auctions, but today is when growers get a feel for whether that's true.

        Other unknowns that Mr. Snell mentioned:

        • The tobacco companies' increased reliance on foreign-grown tobacco, which sells at a lower price.

        Malawi, an African nation that is the world's leading burley exporter, is selling at 45 cents a pound this year. Brazil and Argentina, which compete with U.S.-grown tobacco in terms of quality, also sell at less than a dollar a pound.

        • Pool tobacco, which is the leaf that cannot reap a cent more than the support prices at auction.

        More than 40 percent of last year's crop was purchased by the cooperative association and placed in the pool. A credit corporation purchased the stocks, but Mr. Snell said the tobacco could enter the international market and, once again, affect tobacco companies' demand for U.S.-grown tobacco.

        On the positive, Tim Gray, 44, of Lewis Township in Brown County, Ohio, said he is trying to remain hopeful.

        It's a struggle, he admits, because he was one of a few Tristate growers who lost much of their crop to summer storms. August rains, wind and hail ravaged the tobacco crop in western Brown County in August.

        Mr. Gray still looks forward to today's market opening.

        “A lot of people look at tobacco as a seasonal crop, but it's a year-round crop. We're just looking forward to seeing what (the market) does,” he said.

        “It's a supply-and-demand market. If we've got what they want, they'll pay good money for it.”

        The Enquirer will scrutinize Kentucky's No. 1 cash crop in the next few months to see how it touches the state's economy, politics and culture.
       

Seven minutes might explain suspect's death
Tobacco growers have burley blues
Fire destroys Covington home
DJ job sounds great
Food pantries face struggle
Homes built for 3 families
Police dogs get their day
Principals go back to school
Robber was would-be policeman
Teens' retreat targets poverty
Three chaplains link with police
Tour train still diverted
You asked for it
Local Digest
Kentucky Digest