NEW YORK — A key gauge of future economic activity fell 0.2 percent in October, suggesting further slowing for the U.S. economy in the new year.

        The Conference Board said Monday that its Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators declined to 105.5 in October after registering no change in September and dropping 0.1 percent in August. October's fall was slightly more than the 0.1 percent analysts had anticipated.

        The index is watched closely because it gives an indication where the overall U.S. economy is headed in the next three to six months.

        A related index, which measures current or coincident economic activity, fell 0.1 percent in October — the first decline since a 0.1 percent drop in September 1999, the New York-based business group said.

        Ken Goldstein, the Conference Board's chief economist, noted that since the start of 2000, the leading indicators have declined in five months and been flat in four.

        “To be sure, this series has been signaling and continues to point toward a cooling of still-strong economic conditions,” Mr. Goldstein said in a statement accompanying the report. “Interest rates and growth restraints continue to dictate the pace and timing of how much slower the economy will be this winter.”

        U.S. economic growth slowed markedly in the July-September quarter, with the nation's gross domestic product expanding at an annual rate of 2.4 percent, down from 5.6 percent in the spring quarter. GDP is a measure of the nation's total output of goods and services.

        The slowing came after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates six times between June 1999 and May 2000 in an effort to try to keep the economy from overheating and sparking inflation.

        Fed policy makers next meet Dec. 19, and most economists expect that they are likely to express less concern about inflation but hold rates steady.

        Bryan Jordan, an economic analyst at Banc One Investment Advisors in Columbus, thinks the leading indicators suggest that a “soft landing” for the economy is on track.

        “There's no doubt the economy is cooling off, and these numbers are more evidence of that,” he said.

        “We don't buy into that hard landing story,” he said. “There's still a lot of inherent strength in the economy.”

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