An earthquake in Cincinnati? Not so unlikely.

        Thursday morning's 3.9-magnitude quake centered 5 miles from Evansville, Ind., was one of many recorded in the three-state region — and they happen more frequently than you might think.

        Researchers and public safety officials say it's only a matter of time until the Midwest's version of “The Big One” hits — a quake possibly even stronger than the 6.7-magnitude Northridge quake that killed 72 people in Southern California in 1994.

UC engineering professor Dr. Bahram M. Shahrooz, in the Large-Scale Test Facility. (Michael Snyder photo) | ZOOM |

        “Could you imagine?” said Attila Kilinc, head of the University of Cincinnati's geology department. “(An earthquake) is going to cost the state (of Ohio) millions, if not billions.”

        During an October earthquake in Cincinnati, the ground moved 0.16 millimeter. Not much, but enough to prove we're not immune. Hamilton County recorded larger quakes in 1854, 1925, 1936 and 1937. . Quakes also were felt in this area in 1980, '86 and '87.

        At the University of Cincinnati, construction is nearly finished on the $2.4 million Large-Scale Test Facility in Winton Hills. It will be able to test a two-story building and gauge bridge girder strength under earthquake conditions.

        Bahram M. Shahrooz, associate engineering professor, dreamed up the Winton Hills test facility five years ago and, a few design changes later, construction began in May. It is expected to open in mid- to late January. Its size and capability will be among the top 10 in the world.

        “It's very exciting,” Mr. Shahrooz said. “You can use the (test results) information everywhere you want.”

Building codes stiffer
        Greater Cincinnati is more prepared for earthquakes than many people realize.

        Building codes have improved during the past five years, said Tonia Edwards, Hamilton County's building commissioner. More research — either through testing or actual earthquakes — has given designers more equations to make buildings safer.

        “A lot more stringent codes were put in place,” Ms. Edwards said. “I think we're safe codewise. (Damage) would likely be (on) the older buildings.”

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Major Tristate earthquakes

        High on that safety list: Paul Brown Stadium.

        “I'd rather be there than some other building,” Ms. Edwards said.

        Kentucky Gov. Paul Patton wants everyone to know the danger earthquakes present. Kentucky governors for years have proclaimed October as Earthquake Preparedness Month, and Kentucky lawmakers have required earthquake education in schools.

        “When we have been as long as we have without a seismic event, perhaps people don't take (earthquake risks) as seriously as they should,” said Ray Bowman, spokesman for Kentucky's Division of Emergency Management. “It's not really "if,' it's "when.'”

        Historians are aware that the fault closest to the Tristate — New Madrid, along the Kentucky-Missouri border — delivered among the largest earthquakes in U.S. history. Experts assume the 1811 and 1812 New Madrid quakes registered at least 8 on what is now known as the scale of moment magnitude. By comparison, the great San Francisco quake of 1906 is also estimated to have been above 8. The largest quake in U.S. history is regarded to be the 1964 Alaska earthquake, with a magnitude of at least 9.
       

Big quakes in the past
        During late 1811 and early 1812, the New Madrid fault awakened the eastern United States, leaving significant damage in its wake.

        In the town of New Madrid, Mo., 330 miles southwest of Cincinnati, the ground shook so violently that no one could stand and waves were visible along the ground. Three major aftershocks followed, each quake a estimated 8.0 — or greater.

        Reported destruction reached Washington, D.C., and Charleston, S.C. The quake changed the Ohio River's course, reconfiguring the Kentucky border.

        Still today, the New Madrid fault releases more than 200 measurable quakes each year.

        On March 2 and 9, 1937, in Anna, Ohio, 88 miles north of Cincinnati, two quakes, estimated to be 5.0 and 5.5 respectively, tipped chimneys, twisted church organ pipes and damaged a school building so badly it had to be torn down.

        Ohio has been the epicenter of about 120 earthquakes since 1776. Fourteen caused minor to moderate damage.

        Recent rumblings along the New Madrid fault indicate this area is overdue for an earthquake reaching a magnitude of 6.0 to 6.5 said Michael C. Hansen, a senior geologist with the Ohio Department of Natural Resources Division of Geological Survey.

        Because of the more brittle, fragile rocks in the Tristate, earthquakes can be felt 10 times farther than quakes in California are, Mr. Hansen said.

        “We don't want to jump out and say we're going to have a 6.5 earthquake, and don't want to say it won't happen either,” he said. “We might have 3,000 years to go. Who knows?”
       

Acts of God
        Tornadoes are a very real part of living in this area — so are floods, and severe storms. Ask most schoolchildren and they can tell you what to do if a tornado siren sounds.

        However, ask an adult what to do if the ground starts shaking and there probably will not be an answer. “Scary” is how most officials characterize our region's earthquake apathy.

        “Our motto is "preparedness, not panic,'” Mr. Bowman said. “And that's the key to the whole thing.”

        “Quite frankly, I didn't know there were things to do to prepare for an earthquake,” said Kathy Barber of Clifton. “The floors are just going to go to the basement and the house will shift off the foundation.”

        However, simple things like securing bookshelves and moving dangerous chemicals can make a world of difference in preventing damage.

        Books and kits are available to prepare youngsters and adults:

        • To Be Safe During An Earthquake — and Other Emergencies by Mary Bowen and Monty Ruth (GlobalVision, $28.95) is half book, half activity pages, and geared toward children. Inside, authors illustrate the harm natural disasters can create using cartoon characters to teach safety.

        • The federal government's quake.usgs.gov site holds a world of information.

        • Bob Stotz, vice president of Survivor Industries in Newbury Park, Calif., prepares people for catastrophes. His company sells emergency kits for many situations, including earthquakes (www.survivorind.com). Having survived the Northridge earthquake, Mr. Stotz can speak firsthand about being prepared.

        “(Earthquakes) used to be acts of God,” he said. “They are not relegated to that anymore. ... It makes common sense to be prepared.”
       

Getting insured
        Mrs. Barber and her husband, Lynn, are among an estimated 25 percent with earthquake insurance in this area.

        “I just awakened and the bed was shaking,” said Mrs. Barber, 58, recounting a 1980searthquake. “It reminded me of the rocking in a house ... when you live near railroad tracks and a train goes by.”

        Later, a neighbor on their Clifton street, an insurance agent, told the Barbers about buying extra coverage for their home. They did.

        Paul Vernon, an independent insurance agent in Mason, sells earthquake insurance.

        Costs vary, based on the insured home's value and type of construction, Mr. Vernon said.

        “When I get people who ask is (earthquake insurance) worth it, I say, if $50 a year is worth losing everything they own, usually people add it at that point,” Mr. Vernon said.

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