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Thursday, December 14, 2000

Market surge unlikely




By Amy Higgins
The Cincinnati Enquirer

        A stock market battered in part by presidential uncertainty is not guaranteed to recover now that Vice President Al Gore has lost the election — at least not according to history.

        In the six elections between 1976 and 1996, Standard & Poor's 100 Index fell by an average of 0.86 percent during the first 10 days after the election, said Jerry Wang, market strategist at Schaeffer's Investment Research in Forest Park.

        “Then it picked back up to a normal market pace,” Mr. Wang said.

        Generally, October to December is a strong time for stocks — except the post-election period, Mr. Wang said. Even though this year's presidential decision comes late, the end of 2000 isn't likely to look much different.

        That's in large part because the contested election isn't the only thing hurting investors. Reports of a slowing economy and weak earnings are pulling down prices.

        “The earnings warnings are getting pretty thick,” said Charles White, portfolio manager at Avatar Associates. “When you've got retail sales slumping as much as they have and you've got consumers as uneasy as they are, these things start to weigh on the marketplace.”

        Year-to-date, all major indexes are in negative territory, and are on pace to end the year with their largest losses in years.

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