A cornerstone of George W. Bush's presidential campaign platform — Social Security reform — could be in jeopardy without a clear mandate from American voters or a wide congressional majority.

        “Nothing major will happen in Bush's first two years,” said Craig Copeland, a senior research associate at the Employee Benefits Research Institute.

        Mr. Bush may want to wait until after the 2002 elections, hoping for more Republicans to gain office in Congress, to try to make any serious moves, Mr. Copeland said.

        Mr. Bush proposed creating personal savings accounts, under which taxpayers could earmark a portion of their Social Security payroll tax to invest in the stock market. The growth in the savings accounts is supposed to make up a projected shortfall between Social Security revenues and obligations.

        Social Security works as an intergenerational transfer, under which the payroll taxes of 3.3 workers pay the benefits of one Social Security recipient.

        But the 76 million baby boomers closing in on retirement means that by 2015, more money will be leaving Social Security than going it. Reserves that have been accumulating since 1983 will be exhausted by 2037, with payroll taxes covering only about 75 percent of expected payouts.

        Mr. Bush has proposed letting workers earmark 2 percentage points of their 5.35 percent Social Security payroll tax for personal accounts. The accompanying 0.85 Disability Insurance and 1.45 Medicare tax rates — as well as the employers' match of the total 7.65 percent rate — would remain untouched.

        But even now, experts and academics have a hard time evaluating his plan, because Mr. Bush hasn't been specific about how it would work, or where the money would come from to replace what's going into savings instead of paying current beneficiaries.

        One thing that still might happen is Mr. Bush's promise to form a bipartisan commission to study Social Security reforms.

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Local voters just glad it's over
Lawmakers talk conciliation
Ohio could reap the spoils
Tristate Republicans could win appointments
Kentuckians see friend in Bush
Tristate scholars consider lessons, impact of election
Impact on Abortion
Impact on Education
Impact on Environment/energy
Impact on Health Care
Impact on Social Security
Bush electors in the Tristate