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Friday, December 29, 2000

Consumer optimism falls to 2-year low




By Lisa Singhania
The Associated Press

        NEW YORK — Worries about job growth and the economy pushed consumer confidence in December to its lowest level in two years, an industry group said Thursday.

        Economists said the decline in The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index is an indication that consumer spending will continue to slow and hints at troubles for U.S. businesses.

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        “It's just not as positive an outlook as had been the case in the summer and fall,” said Kathleen Camilli, director of economic research at Tucker Anthony Sutro. “One would have to conclude it's the impact of the stock market on people's perceptions. It's also the impact on employment, because employment conditions in some parts of the country are starting to deteriorate.”

        The Consumer Confidence Index fell to 128.3, slightly below analysts' expectations. It was the third straight month of decline and a drop-off from the revised 132.6 reported in November.

        “While the overall index continues to signal economic growth, albeit at a slower pace, the continued decline in expectations is somewhat disconcerting,” said Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board's Consumer Research Center. “If expec tations continue on this downward trend, a more severe slowdown may be on the horizon.”

        The Conference Board index, based on a monthly survey of 5,000 U.S. households, is considered a key indicator because consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of the nation's economic activity. The index compares results to its base year, 1985, when it stood at 100.

        Consumer confidence has fallen sharply since its 142.5 in September. The last time the index fell below 128.3 was in December 1998, when it measured 126.7, Ms. Franco said.

       



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