Newspaper industry analyst John Morton thinks that as the economy slows, one of the first sectors that could feel the pain will be media firms in general and newspaper companies in particular.

        Mr. Morton, president of Morton Research Inc., a media consultancy based in Silver Spring, Md., said revenues to media companies are likely to remain flat until the economy takes off again.

        “Since the economy seems to be slowing, I am not looking for an ebullient year for newspaper earnings,” he said. “Of course, that more than likely will mean that newspaper stocks aren't going to rebound anytime soon.

        “We don't think those stocks will rebound until it looks pretty clear that there

        has been a significant uptick in the economy.”

        The demise in 2000 of many dot-com firms led to a corresponding slowdown in spending by newspaper companies on the Internet.

        When profits are under siege, Mr. Morton said, it's easier to scale back on Internet investments, which may not pay off for years — if ever. “That's basically what we're dealing with,” he said.

        “But it's not affecting newspapers as much. What's really affecting newspapers is softness in retail advertising. Radio operations tend to do a little better in soft economies because it is cheaper to advertise on radio.”

        Executives at E.W. Scripps Co., a media company based in Cincinnati, told Wall Street analysts in December that its Scripps Networks television brands — Do It Yourself, Home & Garden Television and Fine Living — will continue to be the company's fastest growing business segment.

        Daniel J. Castellini, senior vice president and chief financial officer, said advertising revenue increases for 2001 could bring Scripps Networks 25 percent to 30 percent growth.

        Newspaper revenues will increase a projected 5 percent, which excludes the Denver market where a joint operating agreement is pending, and broadcast television revenues will grow by 5 percent, he told investors during the Credit Suisse First Boston Media Week Conference in New York City.

        In the meantime, declining revenues from anything Internet have hit Scripps — handwriting that was already on the wall in the fourth quarter this year — because of “sharply reduced ad spending by Internet companies.”

        “Internet sector advertising revenues for category media are expected to be $2 million in the fourth quarter, compared to $6 million in the year-ago period,” the company reported in its quarterly report on Sept. 30.

        Douglas H. McCorkindale, president and chief executive of Gannett Co. Inc., owner of The Cin cinnati Enquirer, said at the same conference that “2000 will be another year of record revenues, profits and cash flow.”

        He also predicted last month that the company's Internet operations will take in between $60 million and $65 million in 2000 with revenue to approach “the $100 million mark” a year later.

        Clear Channel Communications Inc., based in San Antonio and the biggest U.S. owner of radio stations, is heavily dependent upon radio advertising. Those revenues have taken a hit in recent weeks, said Eric Geil, associate director at Standard & Poor's.

        “Advertising in general is softer, and it's related to the overall economy. But one or two quarters out? I don't know anything more than the next guy,” he said.

        Locally, Clear Channel owns WKRC-TV (Channel 12), WLW-AM (700), WKRC-AM (550), WEBN-FM (102.7), WVMX-FM (94.1), WOFX-FM (92.50), WKFS-FM (107.1), WSAI-AM (1530) and WCKY-AM(1360).

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