The big shopping bender American consumers enjoyed from 1999 into 2000 is running low on spirits.

        The Consumer Confidence Index dipped in the past few months — to 128.3 in December from a record-high 144.7 in May, according to the New York-based Conference Board. Economists agree that the drawn-out presiden tial election, rising gasoline prices and a mercurial stock market have softened consumer expectations.

        But, experts say, the sky is not falling. Confidence levels remain historically high, said Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board's Consumer Research Center.

        “It's safe to say that you're going to plateau sooner or later,” she said recently. “It's not the end of the world at this point.”

        But it might be a temporary end to certain luxuries for some Americans. In the past couple of months, shoppers have second-guessed purchases and pulled back on big-ticket items.

        “Our small family — my husband, son and I — only plan to take a couple of automobile vacations instead of the more expensive air/cruise vacations that we've taken almost on a regular basis during the past 10 years,” said Melinda Callahan, a member of the Enquirer Consumer Panel and a Green Township resident.

        “I would have to say that my consumer confidence hasn't really dropped off, but I'm not encouraged by what I read in the business pages, gasoline prices going up to $2 a gallon (predicted) by next summer.”

        Oil prices are cause for concern in the future. To economist Alex Tshiunza, the stock market has been the biggest factor in reducing current confidence.

        “When people lose assets, even on paper, they still feel less wealthy, and they spend less,” said Mr. Tshiunza, with the Ohio-Kentucky-Indiana Regional Council of Government.

        But with oil prices declining and George W. Bush preparing for office, Ms. Franco predicts confidence will rebound.

Are we headed for a recession?
  • Manufacturing: Excess inventory a danger
  • Wall Street: Not all stocks off
  • Interest rates: Housing market may stay strong
  Retail sales: Falling confidence could curtail spending
  • Media: Newspapers most vulnerable to downturn
  • Transportation: Trucks, airlines may feel pinch
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