Tuesday, when Todd Portune became the first Democrat elected Hamilton County commissioner in 36 years, Democrats could not be blamed if they felt they had reached the promised land.

        After decades of wandering in a desert of near-monolithic Republican control of Hamilton County, many see Mr. Portune's November win over Republican Bob Bed- inghaus as the opening to a truly competitive two-party system in Hamilton County politics.

        It was either that or just a fluke.

        “There's no question this election was a special case,” said Tim Burke, co-chairman of the Hamilton County Democratic Party. “But there's plenty of evidence that this county is changing.”

        What Democrats are hoping is that the solidly Republican suburbs of Hamilton County are going to become less so over the next decade.

        Leaders of both parties say they see it already - while Democratic-leaning residents of the city of Cincinnati are moving out into the suburbs, many GOP voters in the Hamilton County suburbs are leaving for outlying counties such as Butler, Warren and Clermont.

        Democrats hope that trend will make races for offices in Hamilton County more competitive than they have been in the past.

        The Portune-Bedinghaus race, some say, may not represent a trend toward the Democrats. It was a “special case” because of the political baggage the Republican incumbent carried into it. Mr. Bedinghaus had been chief cheerleader in the campaign to pass a stadium sales tax increase and was the county's point man in the construction of the Bengals' Paul Brown Stadium, a project rife with cost overruns.

        Mr. Bedinghaus' biggest problem was with conservative, suburban Republican voters who were angered over the stadium issue.

        “This was a unique situation,” said Joe Deters, chairman of the Hamilton County Republican Party. “Republicans cost him the election.”

        There are roughly three dependable Republican voters for every two solid Democratic voters in Hamilton County. The typical GOP candidate for countywide office wins with 55 percent to 65 percent of the vote. But Mr. Bed- inghaus took only 43 percent, compared with 48 percent for Mr. Portune and 9 percent for Libertarian Paul Naberhaus.

        The city of Cincinnati remains solidly Democratic. Mr. Portune took 64 percent of the vote in the city, compared with 28 percent for Mr. Bedinghaus.

        That 64 percent was typical of a Democrat's performance among city voters, but in most countywide races, the GOP candidates makes up for it by winning with 60 percent or more in the suburbs. In the Portune-Bedinghaus race, though, the GOP incumbent was held to 50 percent. By contrast, another GOP incumbent, County Recorder Rebecca Prem Groppe won 62 percent of the votes in the suburbs.

        Mr. Deters said there is “no question” that the GOP advantage in Hamilton County suburbs is being thinned out by the exodus of thousands of people to outlying counties.

        “Everybody's aware of the change in demographics in the county,” Mr. Deters said. “But the Democrats still have a long way to go in Hamilton County.”

        In 2000, while Mr. Portune was winning a seat on the county commission, Republican incumbents in some of the most important county offices, such as sheriff and prosecutor, were running for re-election without opposition.

        Mr. Burke said he hopes the Portune victory, along with Democrat Dusty Rhodes' hold on the county auditor's office, will encourage more Democrats to run for county offices.

        “There is every reason to believe that it won't take another generation for another Democrat to be elected to county office,” Mr. Burke said.

Portune sworn into office and advises changes ahead
Trend, fluke? Portune win hints at both