NEW YORK — Despite widespread pessimism about consumer spending following a disappointing holiday season, the National Retail Federation takes a stores-half-full view when projecting sales.

        Rosalind Wells, chief economist for the nation's largest retail trade group, said Monday that while she expects consumer spending to decelerate this year, she does not anticipate a recession. She projects sales will continue to grow, but not at the same, frantic pace as they had in 1999 into early 2000.

        “This year will be a sobering one for the economy and retail sales, but we've been accustomed to very vigorous expansions, very vigorous sales gains,” she told reporters Monday at the NRF's 90th Annual Expo and Convention in New York. “So this pullback will not feel good.”

        Purchases of general merchan dise, apparel and furniture, called GAF, declined to 4.6 percent in the last quarter of 2000 from 8.7 in the first quarter. In 2001, the purchase of such items is expected to grow 4.5 to 5 percent a quarter, averaging 4.8 percent, with more of the spending generated in the second half of the year.

        Ms. Wells projects the gross domestic product will grow 2.3 percent in the first half of 2001 and 3.2 percent in the second half.

        Spending in 2000 failed to meet NRF's projections from a year ago, but the trade group did warn that spending would decline, following 1999's high-octane growth. Sales in that year advanced 7.8 percent, the most steep increase since 1986.

        The projections are based on total sales, not same-store sales, which are sales at stores open at least a year. Same-store sales are considered the best measure of a retailer's performance because they involve sales at the same stores year-to-year, and do not include new openings. If total retail square footage grew at a greater rate than sales, then there would be a net loss in business.

        Kurt Barnard, president of Barnard's Retail Trend Report, called 1999 a “wild, money-spending orgy.” He expects same-store sales to rise 2 to 2.5 percent in the first half of the year and 3 percent in the second half.

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