A light-rail system along Interstate 71 would bring $786 million in economic benefits to Greater Cincinnati, according to a study released Tuesday.

        The study, prepared for and presented to the Metropolitan Mobility Alliance, also estimates the total benefit for a regionwide system to exceed $4.6 billion and says the system makes economic sense.

LIGHT-RAIL STUDY

Key findings of light-rail study     Figures in 2001 dollars over the 30-year life of project:     • Overall costs: $1.043 billion.    Capital expenditures: $779 million.    Operating and maintenance costs: $264.7 million.     • Benefits: $1.83 billion (broken into three areas):    Congestion Management (economic value of time savings, reduced accidents, reduced vehicle operating costs): $1.153 billion.    Affordable mobility (increased economic power by limiting reliance on cars): $323 million.    Community development (does not include value from new development, just increased value of current development): $353 million.     • Overall net benefit: $786.6 million.     Source: HLB Decision Economics Inc.

        But officials said they needed to analyze the data before they can use it as a tool to help raise money for the proposed $800 million, 19-mile line, which would open in 2008.

        “The point of this study was to provide clarity to the issue, not provide an argument for a particular point of view,” said Hamilton County Commissioner Tom Neyer Jr., chairman of the alliance, created last year to help find transportation solutions for the area.

        The report, prepared by HLB Decision Economics of Silver Spring, Md., was overseen by a panel of 12 local economists, including representatives from Cinergy, Great American Insurance, Procter & Gamble and Federated Department Stores Inc., all of whom endorsed the findings.

        The initial line would consist of 20 or 21 stops (the study considered the latter) and run from Blue Ash through downtown to Covington.

        Additional proposed routes include Covington to the Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport, along Interstate 75 to Butler County, through the east side to Eastgate Mall and to the west along Interstate 74.

        Light-rail proponents are considering placing a sales tax or levy on the ballot either this November or in 2002 to pay the local share of the project cost. The federal government would pay half and the state of Ohio 25 percent, leaving approximately $200 million for local sources.

        Paul Jablonski, general manager of the Southwest Ohio Regional Transit Authority, said his organization, which would run the light-rail system, could put such an initiative on the ballot. But he also said Metro officials will be gauging public opinion before making any decisions about asking for a sales tax vote.

        A survey commissioned by Downtown Cincinnati Inc. in September reported that 64 percent of those who live, work or shop downtown would favor up to a half-cent Hamilton County sales tax increase to pay for light rail.

        Those numbers and the economic benefit study don't matter to Michael L. McKeehan, 49, of Norwood.

        “I'm not dead set against light rail, and I'm sure it would have some benefit; but it's not going to benefit us in Norwood the way they have it laid out,” Mr. McKeehan said.

        The study said the total benefits would be $1.83 billion and the costs would be $1.04 billion, including capital outlay, operation costs and costs associated with dislocated businesses and homes.

        The largest benefit would be from reduced congestion — $1.15 billion, according to the analysis.

        The report says that with light rail, drive times would still go up over the 30 years studied, from about 40 minutes to 50.7 minutes in 2037 between Blue Ash and downtown.

        Without light rail, that drive would be 80.5 minutes, the report said, corresponding to about $838 million worth of time savings.

        Hamilton County Commissioner John Dowlin questioned the results, and wondered why the study didn't take into account costs associated with projects such as traffic management systems and additional bus routes that are already planned but not funded.

        He also accused officials touting light rail of “tweaking the numbers to get the results they want.”

        Deer Park City Councilwoman Ann Poole said such studies “are just a bunch of numbers to me.”

        “This could sway some people, but I just don't see it happening in Deer Park, no matter what they say,” said Mrs. Poole, who voted against light rail in a 6-1 Deer Park City Council vote against the project.
       

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