Wednesday, February 28, 2001
UC, XU on 'high side' of bubble
Teams can't afford to 'do anything stupid'
By Neil Schmidt
The Cincinnati Enquirer
February ends today. Local teams wish the basketball season did, too.
That's because Xavier's and Cincinnati's men would both be NCAA Tournament teams if the draw were picked now. But should they stumble, they might both be on the bubble — maybe battling each other for the last bid.
“Both teams are in fairly good position, but the cement is still wet for them,” ESPN analyst Clark Kellogg said.
Xavier, 21-5 and ranked 25th by the Associated Press, stands 34th in the Ratings Percentage Index. UC, 19-8, is 36th in the RPI. Only a handful of teams in the 30s of the RPI have ever been left out of the NCAA field.
But much can happen in the next 11 days. XU could lose its regular-season finale Sunday at Dayton and then drop its Atlantic 10 tournament opener. UC could lose either of its final two road games, Thursday at South Florida or Saturday at DePaul, and make an early exit from the Conference USA tournament.
Then they would have no one to blame but themselves as they lose sleep awaiting Selection Sunday verdicts.
“The key at this point is to not take a bad loss,” RPI guru Jerry Palm said. “Right now, both (XU and UC) are on the high side of the bubble, and usually when you're on the high side, you have to play your way out. As long as you don't do anything stupid, you're in.”
Palm, who runs the collegerpi.com Web site, knows the Selection Committee's habits. He correctly predicted 34 of the 35 at-large teams last season and 32 of 34 each of the two seasons before.
He said teams seal their own fates with late losing streaks or untimely losses to low-RPI teams. UC must be careful: South Florida (17-10) is 93rd in the RPI, DePaul (10-15) 146th.
“I don't think losing either of those games is OK,” Palm said. “The conference stinks. Each loss would put Cincinnati one step closer to out (of the NCAAs).”
Should XU win at Dayton (16-11), the worst it could finish would be 22-6 — likely safe, Palm said. But a loss at Dayton could make XU's first A-10 tourney game a must-win.
The relative weaknesses of the A-10 and C-USA have hamstrung the locals. UC is the only C-USA member be ing mentioned as an at-large candidate.
St. Joseph's (23-4 entering play Tuesday), ranked 18th by the AP and 22nd in the RPI, is a probable at-large lock, but XU and Temple (16-12, 48 RPI) appear the only other A-10 teams with at-large hopes.
The A-10 is seventh in the conference RPI, C-USA eighth.
The tough part for XU and UC, should they slip, is how they match up to at-large candidates from the six power conferences: the Atlantic Coast, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pacific 10 and Southeastern.
Each of those could land four to seven NCAA bids, leaving few at-large spots for lower-rated conferences.
“I think unfortunately, that's the reality,” Kellogg said. “I'd love to see it be different. But the reality is, the pool will be relatively small for those not in the big six.”
Said Palm: “The fight is harder for those teams (not from the big six) because their strength of schedule isn't good in-conference, so they have to do more out-of-conference.”
Palm points to teams such as Butler (20-7, 38 RPI), which won at Wisconsin; Georgia State (25-4, 40 RPI), which won at Georgia; and Creighton (23-6, 24 RPI), which beat Providence and Wyoming.
What if it's XU or UC for final bid?
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UC, XU on 'high side' of bubble